Grain: World Markets and Trade, June 2003

Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 06-03
June 2003

Year to year global wheat import changes from 2001/02 to 2003/04

Year to year wheat import changes by the EU from 2001/02 to 2003/04

Year to year wheat import changes for Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia combined from 2001/02 from 2003/04

Changing EU import policy and good weather conditions in North Africa are the primary reasons why world wheat imports will drop by nearly 7.0 million tons in 2003/04. EU wheat imports are forecast to fall by more than 5.0 million tons (50 percent) in 2003/04. A Tariff Rate Quota implemented in January 2003 limits imports of low quality wheat. Much of the quota in 2002/03 was filled by Russia and Ukraine, but exportable supplies from these countries in 2003/04 are limited. While imports of hard spring wheat, generally not produced in Europe, and durum somewhat depend on the quality of the German crop, imports of high quality wheat are expected to be in the 2.5-3.0 million ton range.

Favorable weather conditions have boosted wheat production in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Consequently, imports are expected to drop by 26 percent (3.6 million tons) to 13.7 million tons, the lowest level since 1991/92. Morocco’s imports will fall 1.7 million tons to 1.0 million tons due to more wheat and barley production and better pasture conditions. In Algeria, imports will decline by 0.8 million tons to 4.0 million tons, while Tunisia’s imports will fall 1.1 million tons to 0.8 million tons. Buyers in this region will reduce imports as millers and livestock producers use domestic crops and forage supplies.