August 11, 2000

China Corn and Soybean Situation

Lower Corn Production, Higher Soybean Production for 2000/01

China’s corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 115.0 million tons, down 7 million from last month and down 13 million or 10 percent from last year’s bumper crop. Area is estimated at 24.5 million hectares, down 1.4 million from a year ago, as farmers responded to low market and procurement prices by reducing planted area. The largest area reduction were in the Northeast and the North China Plain, which together account for about 60 percent of China’s total corn area. These losses were partially offset by increased area in southern and central China, where corn was planted as an alternative to early rice and wheat. The crop was seriously affected by drought in several key production provinces this summer, although recent widespread rainfall has improved yield prospects. The estimated yield of 4.69 tons/hectare is down 5 percent from last year and the lowest since the drought-impacted crop of 1997/98.

China’s 2000/01 soybean crop is estimated at 15.0 million tons, down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last month, but up 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.3 million hectares, up more than 13 percent from 1999/00 due to higher prices, strong domestic demand for soybean products, and local government policies that encouraged soybean production. In the main soybean-growing region of the Northeast, at least 500,000 hectares were reportedly switched from corn to soybeans this year. Summer drought in the Northeast (45 percent of total soybean area) and parts of the North China Plain (20 - 25 percent) had a serious impact on yield. Estimated yield for the 2000/01 crop is 1.61 tons/hectare, down 8 percent from last year and well below the 5-year average.

Drought in Northern China Has Major Impact on Yield

Northeast China accounts for about 30 percent of total corn area and 45 percent of total soybean area, while the North China Plain accounts for about 35 percent of China’s total corn area and 30 percent of total soybean area.. Abundant precipitation during the winter of 1999/2000 supplied adequate soil moisture for planting in the Northeast, but spring drought on the North China Plain caused planting delays. Temperatures and rainfall were mostly favorable through mid-May, but unusually hot and dry weather in June spread across the Manchurian plain and extended south into the North China Plain, creating stressful conditions for vegetative crops, particularly corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and rice. Occasional showers in late June and early July provided only limited relief, and soil moisture was further depleted by very high temperatures (3 to 5 C. above normal) which dominated the area. The drought reached its peak around mid-July, just as the corn crop was entering the silking stage, and local sources were very concerned about its possible impact on corn and soybean yields.

These concerns have been eased slightly by the arrival of timely rainfall in late July and early August, which has reduced the moisture deficit and lowered temperatures in the Northeast. Heilongjiang has seen the greatest improvement in crop condition: Liaoning and Jilin received a few beneficial showers but soil moisture levels remained lower than normal. Parts of the North China received unusually heavy rain in July, and serious local flooding and crop damage was reported in Henan and Shaanxi provinces. The northern part of the North China Plain remained affected by drought until early August, when soaking rains started to move into the region and provide needed moisture. Summer crops on the North China Plain normally enter reproduction in late July and early August. Most areas have adequate soil moisture and can expect additional rainfall, but stressful weather earlier in the summer likely had a lasting impact on yields.

Rainfall Graphs for Selected Cities in Northeast China and North China Plain

April 1 through August 9, 2000

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.