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April 12, 2000
Spain and Portugal are expected to plant more area to winter grains in 2000/01 than 1999/2000 due to changes in the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and to nearly ideal seeding conditions. However, the 1999 - 2000 winter was very dry and the Iberian peninsula appeared to be facing a second year of drought. Rainfall during the end of March and beginning of April has greatly improved winter grain prospects, but average rainfall during April and May will still be necessary in order to ensure a good winter crop. Low reservoir levels will likely dampen this year’s spring crop planting.
Area planted to 2000/01 winter grains is expected to be up in Spain and Portugal due to changes in the CAP making it more advantageous for producers to grow grains. The EU is encouraging producers to shift crops from oilseeds over to grains by increasing the grains compensatory payments. Next year in 2001/02 grain compensatory payments will again increase, and the following year in 2002/03 oilseed compensatory payments will decrease. The EU intends this multi-step change in policy to gradually shift producers from oilseeds to grain crops.
The 2000/01 winter grain area should also be up because of favorable rains in September and October 1999 during planting. However, the Iberian peninsula received very little rain from November 1 through mid-March, and moisture supplies were further diminished by unusually warm temperatures. Producers feared an even more devastating drought than in 1999/2000, when the southern regions of both countries were severely affected. By mid-March 2000 Andalucia, a region on the south coast of Spain which grows about 70 percent of the country’s durum crop, was at one-quarter its normal cumulative rainfall since planting. Soft winter wheat and barley, which are grown more in the central and northern parts of Spain, experienced better growing conditions than durum this year. (Map of winter precipitation- percent of normal.)
Rainfall over the last few days of March and early April brought some relief to the crops. (Map- recent precipitation.) Yield prospects at this point appear to be better than last season, especially in the southern regions. An analysis of rainfall in southern Spain using analog years with low rainfall shows that the region had more precipitation than 1999/2000, and analysis using satellite imagery shows vegetation in the south is less stressed than last year. It is possible that Spain and Portugal may achieve average winter grain yields if they receive normal rainfall for the rest of April and May.
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Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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However, the dry winter will likely impact future spring planting. Despite the EU’s efforts to reduce oilseed production, oilseed area may rise. Reservoir levels are reported to be at less than half full. Without plentiful spring rainfall these reservoirs will not be replenished and less corn is likely to be planted. Southern officials and water resource managers have discussed water allocation levels that amount to only 70 percent of what is necessary for healthy corn development. The most likely alternative is sunflowers, which can grow in far less moisture. Cotton will most likely remain unchanged since it is a highly profitable crop for farmers. The government of Portugal has already announced an increase in the amount of fallow land that can be counted for aid purposes, and has given producers permission to plant oilseeds on half the land they usually plant to rice in anticipation of irrigation problems.
For more information, contact Suzanne Miller with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0882
