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Soybean Prices and Indicators
September 2000

Corn, soybeans and soybean product prices registered above-normal seasonal declines in August.  However, recent deterioration in U.S. yield prospects for soybeans and corn forced upward revisions in the September price forecasts for soybeans, soybean meal and corn.  Indications of above normal ending stocks of corn continue to pressure corn, as well as, soybean prices.

In August, most price ratios and indicators were below their respective 12-month averages except soy meal/corn; soy meal/wheat; wheat/corn; hog/corn; feed profitability; and Malaysian palm oil stocks.

Key shifts in 2000/2001

  1. Global oilseed area may dip below last year's 190 million hectares as depressed vegetable oil prices shrank planting of high-oil-content crops.
  2. Global soybean area is up 3.4 percent, reflecting attractive prices in relation to grain
  3. Global oilseed production will be up 2 percent, reflecting higher yields, but this is the third consecutive year of below average expansion.
  4. U.S. soybean exports were up 12 percent during Oct-Feb 1999/00, reflecting a 1.2 million-ton drop to South American carry-in stocks, but exports surged 27 percent during Mar-Jun 2000 of the same period a year earlier, reflecting accelerated demand
  5. In FY 2001, U.S. soybean exports will continue to expand, reflecting continued growth in foreign demand growth in the face of reduced supplies ahead.
  6. U.S. soybean meal exports were up 2 percent through February, but recovery accelerated to 4 percent during March-June and that rate of increase should continue in FY 2001 as foreign meal supply growth dwindles.
  7. U.S. soybean oil exports continued to lag through June, down 42 percent, reflecting above-normal foreign vegetable oil output expansion, but sharply slowing foreign output growth is expected to boost U.S. soybean oil exports by more than 30 percent in FY 2001.
  8. Vegetable oil prices have bottomed and should recover somewhat  as global stocks are worked lower.
  9. Oil prices will gain on meal prices as global oil stocks decline.
  10. Oilseed prices will remain sharply below their 10-year respective averages as stocks build next year.

Charts: (click on the arrow to view the table)

     see table 2     U.S. Soybean Prices at Farm, U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks in Days of Use
     see table 3     U.S. Soybean & Corn Ending Stock/Use Coverage
     see table 4     U.S. Soybean Oil Prices vs. U.S. Soybean Oil Ending Stocks in Days of Use
     see table 5     Vegetable Oil Ending Stock Use Coverage (U.S. and Foreign)
     see table 6     U.S. Soybean Prices: At Farm
     see table 7     U.S. Soybean/Corn Price Ratio
     see table 8     U.S. Soybean Meal Prices
     see table 9     U.S. 48% Soybean Meal/Corn Price Ratio
     see table 10     U.S. Feed Profitability Ratio
     see table 11     U.S. Soybean Oil % of Soybean Product Value & U.S. Soybean Crush Margin
     see table 12     U.S. Soybean Oil: Prices & Stocks
     see table 13     Trade Weighted Oil Prices & Oil Stocks
     see table 14     U.S. Oilseed Supply - Use
     see table 15     Foreign Oilseed Production, Total Use & Deficit
     see table 16     Meal Disappearance: U.S. & World Soybean and Total World
     see table 17     Oil Disappearance: U.S. & World Soybean and Total World

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Last modified: Tuesday, September 14, 2004