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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 18, 2004
The 2004/05 winter grain crop in central Europe benefited from a mild winter with above-average temperatures. The 2004/05 wheat crop is currently in much better shape than the 2003/04 crop, which suffered severely from both winterkill and spring drought. This year, winter precipitation was abundant in the north and about average in the south. Precipitation fell mainly as snow, protecting crops from the few cold outbreaks, unlike last year, when thin snow coverage coincided with extremely low temperatures. Therefore, winterkill this year should be minimal. Baring spring floods, the persistent and widespread snow coverage will contribute to good planting moisture in April for summer crops.
Unrelenting October rains made field operations difficult in the Balkans, resulting in sowing delays that extended past the optimal planting window. Heavy precipitation fell in September and October, soaking the fertile land along the Danube River in Bulgaria and Romania. Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina were also saturated in October by heavy rainfall, causing planting delays there as well. Fortunately, November and December were dry months in all of southeast Europe, allowing missed planting opportunities to be made up. Seed sown in November and December, however, has a smaller yield potential than seed sown in October.
During winter, above-normal precipitation fell during January and also in February, mainly in the form of snow. Poland and the Czech Republic saw significantly large snows during January and February. In fact, the only areas in southeastern Europe to experience below-normal precipitation were parts of eastern Romania and Bulgaria, and that occurred only during the month of February. In addition, the Posts in southeast Europe states that wheat looks good in the field, and at this point, there is no reason not to expect a good crop.
The 2003/04 season was abysmal for central European farmers. It was a season complete with a string of yield-reducing weather events. The widespread spring and summer drought probably took the greatest toll on the grain crop. In addition, an exceptionally cold winter destroyed considerably more than normal planted area. Substantial farmland suffered winterkill, with much of it re-seeded with spring crops, including spring wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower. Also reducing the crop's yield potential were heavy, saturating rains that fell during planting in October 2002. Similar to the 2004/05 crop scenario, these rains kept initial planted area down; however, unlike this year, the 2003/04 crop was thrust into an early and damaging winter. As a result, total 2003/04 wheat area and production were at a post-Communist low of just 20.8 million tons from 7.8 million hectares, resulting in a yield of 2.66 tons/ha. The region’s five-year average is a 29.5 million tons, compared with the the 20.8 million from last year.
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