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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 10, 2004
Independent commodity analysts estimate that Russia's sown winter grain area for 2004/05 dropped by over 10 percent from last season; however, reduced winterkill will benefit final harvested area. Soil moisture reserves are at full capacity and current crop conditions are generally favorable. Ukraine's winter grain area appears to be in good condition as well. Initial USDA estimates of worldwide 2004/05 grain production will be released on May 12.
Russian farms planted winter grains on 13.6 million hectares for 2004/05 (including 13.2 million on agricultural enterprises), according to data from SovEcon, an independent commodity analysis institute in Moscow. Wheat typically comprises 65 to 70 percent of winter grain area, rye 25 to 30 percent, and barley about 5 percent. Winter grain area is down 11 percent from last year, when 14.9 million hectares were sown, but severe winter weather destroyed a reported 25 percent of the 2003/04 crop and harvested area fell to less than 11 million hectares.
Satellite imagery indicates that many key winter-wheat regions in southern Russia and southern and eastern Ukraine were devoid of snow cover by early March. The 2004/05 crop has benefited from relatively mild winter weather, most notably in Saratov oblast in the Volga district and Volgograd oblast in the Southern district, where winterkill destroyed roughly half of the planted winter grain area last season. Based on conditions to date, overall winterkill in Russia is unlikely to exceed the 10-percent average.
Winter grains remain dormant throughout European Russia, where virtually all of the country's winter wheat is grown. In southern Russia, the region where the crop first breaks dormancy (typically in mid- to late March), February and early-March temperatures have been higher than last year but still too low to enable the crop to resume vegetative growth. Soil moisture reserves have been fully replenished throughout European Russia.
Meanwhile, weather data indicate that winter grains in Ukraine are also in generally good condition. Winter weather was generally mild, except for a brief episode of bitterly cold weather in eastern Ukraine in late February. As in Russia, soil moisture reserves in Ukraine are at full capacity. Spring planting has reportedly begun in southern Crimea, but winter grains likely have not yet broken dormancy in most of Ukraine. According to a senior agricultural official, 7.1 million hectares of winter grains were planted for 2004/05. Although this marks a 15-percent reduction from last year's 8.4 million hectares, harvested area for 2004/05 is almost certain to surpass last season, when December frosts and persistent ice crusting during February and March destroyed 65 percent of the planted area. Harvested wheat area for 2003/04 plunged to 2.5 million hectares, from 6.8 million in 2002/03, and output fell from 20.6 million tons to 3.6 million.
Current USDA grain-production estimates for Russia, Ukraine, and the rest of the world are available at PSD Online.
