January 22, 2004

Northwest Africa: Plentiful Autumn Rains
Leave Winter Grain Crops in Good Condition

Mid-Winter Prospects Favorable

 Abundant rains have fallen across most of Northwest Africa for the second consecutive fall planting season.  The seasonal rains arrived early and were plentiful for practically the entire autumn quarter. Expectations are running high in the region, which is accustomed to the swings of both boom and bust crop years. Going into dormancy or semi-dormancy, Algeria appears to have enjoyed the best grain emergence in Northwest Africa, as indicated by satellite imagery.  Not far behind, Morocco and Tunisia are also showing better-than-average conditions with good soil moisture levels. 

Other rainfall graphics:

January Rainfall (mm)
Fall rainfall - percent of normal
 

Possible Areas to Watch

At this time, only minor concerns can be raised about the emerged 2004/05 crop: wetness recorded last fall in northern Morocco and the dryness now developing in southern Morocco. Concern about dryness in southern Morocco is tempered by the fact that land in the south is typically less productive; low yields are not unusual in southern Morocco. Climate can play a damaging role--as it did this year--with eastward tracking storm fronts passing to the north, bypassing agricultural lands surrounding Marrakech. In addition, a strong southern sun can create excessively high evaporation rates. Finally, the south is more barley oriented than the wheat dominated north, so dryness that is concentrated in the south will be less damaging to the national wheat output.

Flood damage in northern Morocco last fall was likely just a localized problem, and did not affect significant crop areas.  The high rainfall had the beneficial effect of boosting reservoir levels for farmers with access to the limited irrigation systems.  Rainfall has since tapered off considerably in northern Morocco, allowing soil moisture to recover from any excessive wetness. The heaviest rains have now shifted east, concentrating on eastern Algeria and Tunisia, but the surplus rainfall that has fallen has probably caused little damage.

Other Soil Moisture Graphics:

Percent Soil Moisture
Subsurface Soil Moisture
Satellite Derived Surface Wetness Anomalies

Looking Toward Spring

Substantial, periodic spring rains must also occur, beginning around the end of February and lasting through April, to maintain current favorable conditions.  Spring temperatures will also be crucial.  A worst-case scenario that occasionally develops involves dry continental air blown in from the Sahara Desert.  After crossing the Atlas Mountain Range, the winds arrive on the northern slopes and agricultural lands beyond,  further heated and excessively dry   These Sirocco winds can quickly raise temperatures well above normal and increase dryness, usually with devastating results.

Temperature

Temperatures during fall hovered within the normal range, lacking any large swings of damaging heat or cold.
December: Just about normal

At this stage of the season, all factors required for a good grain crop have been successfully met, and the outlook remains very good, but spring weather will be crucial in determining how the crop will eventually fare. 

Other NDVI Graphics:

AVHRR: NDVI
Morocco NDVI Graphs
Algeria NDVI Graphs
Tunisia NDVI Graph

References

Northwest Africa Reference Map

Northwest African Grain and its Fragile Dependence on Rain
Grain crops grown in the three Northwest African countries are almost exclusively winter wheat (including durum) and winter barley.  Planting typically begins in mid-November after the first showers arrive in October, followed by more steady and heavier rains in November.  Farmers wait for the arrival of autumn rains before starting to plant.  Fortunately, the planting window in this warm climate allows sowing to extend into January. Grain yields in the Maghreb hinge on the track and timing of storms, and the amount of rain that is produced.  In fact, the area seeded to winter grains is so highly dependent upon autumn rainfall that if rains don’t arrive in the normal wet months of November and December, many farmers simply forego the expense of planting altogether.

Typically, the later the rains arrive, the less area planted and the lower the yields will be.  Fall rains are certainly not the only ingredient required in attaining high yields, but in Northwest Africa a successful rainy season is never a guarantee.  It is the first major step toward a good crop season.  Several recent consecutive drought years in some or all of the Northwest African countries have resulted in poor harvests. Last year however, was an above average year for all countries.  In an area dominated by rain-fed agriculture (with less than ten percent of area irrigated), farmers are hopeful to harvest a second straight bumper crop.

Other USDA Resources on the Internet

Attaché Reports from staff at international postings can be viewed from this website.

For crop conditions and weather data in Europe and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer.

For official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities in Europe and the rest of the world please visit PSD online.

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell, bryan.purcell@usda.gov
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138