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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 2, 2004
Planting and establishment conditions for 2005/06 winter grains in the Balkan countries have been marked by dryness in the east, excessive wetness in the west, and late planting and above-normal temperatures throughout the region. In most of the countries, however, the planting delays did not result in a significant reduction in sown area. Soil moisture, even in the drier areas, was adequate for germination and crop establishment. Beneficial warm weather in October and early November enabled late-planted winter crops to become more fully established prior to the arrival of cooler weather in mid-November. Wheat is the dominant winter grain in the Balkans, comprising 75 to 80 percent of total winter grain area, and winter wheat accounts for nearly all of the region's total wheat production. Barley is the only other significant winter grain.
Autumn precipitation has been lower than usual in the two largest wheat-producing countries in the Balkans but the dryness has not had a significant negative effect on winter grain planting or establishment. Final figures have not yet been released, but early reports suggest that sown winter wheat area in Romania, the region's top producer, will reach approximately 2.2 million hectares. This roughly matches the level of the two previous seasons despite Ministry of Agriculture efforts to encourage farmers to reduce grain area and boost the area of soybeans and industrial crops like sugar beets, rape, flax, and hemp. The policy measures, slated to take effect in January 2005, include the suspension or reduction of two types of agricultural subsidies for grains: input subsidies (e.g. for certified planting seed and diesel fuel) and market-price subsidies. Meanwhile, subsidies for the "preferred" crops will be substantially increased.
Preliminary data from Bulgaria indicate that winter wheat will be planted on roughly 1.1 million hectares, which would be the highest level in three years. Mid-November subsurface moisture reserves in most key grain regions of Romania and Bulgaria were lower than last year following several months of below-normal precipitation, but surface moisture was adequate for crop emergence and establishment. Planting occurred later than usual this year, due in part to the late harvest of bumper corn and sunflowerseed crops. In parts of Bulgaria, for example, fall planting was not finished until late November, a full month after the optimum cut-off date. Above-average temperatures in October and early November allowed additional time for winter-grain tillering prior to the arrival of cooler weather in mid-November.
To the west, winter-grain conditions are marked by excessive wetness and soggy soils. According to a report from the U.S. agricultural attache in Belgrade, late planting -- resulting from the extended harvest of a record corn crop -- combined with unfavorably wet planting conditions could reduce both sown area and yield of winter grains in Serbia and Montenegro. Some analysts are forecasting a 10- to 15-percent drop in both sown area and yield for wheat. Vojvodina, in northern Serbia, is the country's chief grain production region. Wet weather has prevailed in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) and Croatia as well, but local observers report that the wetness and late planting likely did not have a significant effect on sown area and suggest that wheat area in both countries will be similar to recent years: roughly 200,000 hectares in Croatia and 100,000 hectares in BiH. Agricultural officials in Macedonia indicated in mid-November that fall planting was considerably behind schedule. Roughly 130,000 hectares of winter grains, only 80 percent of the planned 165,000 hectares, had been sown by November 8, including about 87,000 hectares of wheat and 41,000 hectares of barley. Soil-moisture models indicate adequate moisture for emergence and establishment of winter grains in Macedonia.
Initial USDA estimates for 2005/06 grains will be released on May 12, 2005. Current area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online.
