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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 18, 2004
Early prospects for 2005/06 winter grains in Russia and Ukraine are favorable. Sown area is likely to increase in both countries and crop conditions are generally good although unusually warm weather has delayed the process through which the grains prepare for dormancy.
Sown winter grain area in Russia is likely to increase by 5 to 10 percent over last year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, agricultural enterprises (the so-called "large farms" that accounted for roughly 80 percent of Russian grain production in 2004) had sown 12.8 million hectares of winter grains as of November 9, against 11.9 million by the same date last year. Fall planting is in the final stages but not yet complete. Wheat is the chief winter grain and comprises nearly 70 percent of Russian winter grain area and about one-third of total wheat area. Rye area has been declining since the early 1990's, and plummeted from 3.8 million hectares only two years ago to a record low 2.0 million in 2004. (View crop-area and percent-distribution maps for Russia winter wheat, rye, and barley.)
Planting-progress reports from Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture and the State Statistical Committee (SSC) suggest that sown area of winter grains will increase slightly from last year. According to Ministry data, 6.8 million hectares of winter grains were planted by October 11 (against roughly 6.9 by the same date last year), including 5.8 (5.5) million hectares of wheat, 0.34 (0.57) million barley, and 0.53 (0.87) million rye. SSC data from November 1 indicate that an additional 0.5 million hectares were planted after October 11 and that total area will reach approximately 7.3 million hectares. The State Statistical Committee will release final sown area data in early December. (View crop-area maps for Ukraine winter wheat, rye, and barley.)
Conditions are generally good for winter crops throughout Ukraine and southern Russia. Although soil-moisture models indicate that current surface moisture is low in parts of Ukraine, moisture was adequate for crop germination and establishment in September and October. In most areas, winter wheat is in the vegetative (tillering) stage and local commodity analysts and official forecasting agencies report that a majority of winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition. Unusually warm weather throughout Ukraine and southern Russia has delayed the "hardening" of winter grains, which involves the accumulation of sugars in the plant tissue prior to dormancy. Optimum conditions for hardening to occur are 5 to 6 days with average temperatures between zero and 6 degrees Celsius. Temperatures in the southern portion of the Volga Valley in Russia have reached this threshold, but the Southern District remains unseasonably warm. Temperature data from Ukraine indicate that hardening has not yet begun, even in the northern regions of the winter grain zone. The late development does not necessarily pose a problem for 2005/06 winter crops. Unless temperatures were to plunge suddenly and sharply and remain unusually low throughout November and December -- which is possible but unlikely -- winter grains still have enough time to enter dormancy under favorable conditions.
Official USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online. Initial estimates for 2005/06 will be released on May 12, 2005.
