Impact of El Niño on Global Grain Production
Not as Large as Originally Feared

Summary

Although El Niño has affected regional crop production in some countries, world total grain production (wheat, coarse grain, and milled rice) for 1997/98 is forecast at a record. World rice and wheat production are at record levels, while production of coarse grains is down 2 percent. While regional grain shortages exist due to El Niño, El Niño has not yet caused significant downward pressure on world grain production.

The development of the current El Niño has been closely followed since it began in spring 1997, as scientists, farmers, and policy makers tried to understand its behavior and devise strategies to cope with its potential impact on global agriculture and food supply. Early warnings of El Niño allowed government officials to take pre-emptive actions, such as setting up disaster assistance for farmers, putting aside funds for future relief expenses, issuing drought insurance, building up strategic food stocks, making changes to tax and food import policies, and encouraging shifts in planting patterns.

Introduction

• Late-arriving rains in Indonesia and dryness in Southeast Asia
• Below-normal early-season rainfall in southern Africa
• Dry summer in Central America
• Warm winter weather in Canadian Prairies and northern United States
• Above-normal rainfall in southern California and southern United States

What do these 1997 weather events have in common? Scientists believe they all have some correlation to the current El Niño. The term describes a situation where the trade winds, which normally blow from east to west across the southern Pacific, weaken or even reverse direction. This allows a vast expanse of warm water normally located in the western Pacific to drift eastward toward South America. As the water moves back into the central and eastern Pacific, the extra heat energy affects the strength and position of the jet stream and tropical storms, disrupting weather patterns in many parts of the world. The current El Niño developed very rapidly during April-May 1997 and soon matched the magnitude and size of the 1982/83 episode, which was the strongest of the century. The official NOAA forecast calls for this El Niño to persist through the winter of 1997-1998 and weaken during May-July 1998.

Impact of El Nino by Region

• Australia and Indonesia: In Australia, the impacts from the current El Niño event have not been not as strong as anticipated. Although rainfall was below normal in parts of eastern Australia, timely rainfall supported a slightly below average wheat yield. With harvest nearly complete, wheat output is estimated to be the fifth largest on record. In Indonesia, late-arriving rains delayed the normal October/November rice planting and caused a reduction in rice production potential. However, rice output in Indonesia is still forecast above last season and the third highest on record.
  
• Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines: In Malaysia, rainfall has been below normal but adequate for rice production. In Thailand, below normal rainfall has lowered water reserves for the second rice crop. In the Philippines, localized dryness has reduced corn and rice yields.
  
• Southern Africa: This region is especially susceptible to drought during an El Niño. In the Republic of South Africa, November/December corn planting was delayed due to insufficient rainfall; however, rainfall at the end of December relieved crop stress to the earlier planted crop. Rain that came in early-January will allow farmers to continue to plant into mid-January. An average size corn crop is possible, but timely rains are needed. In Zimbabwe, a hot, dry December negatively affected yield potential for the corn crop and below average yield and output are forecast. In Tanzania and Kenya, drought earlier in the crop year followed by excessive rainfall later in the season has reduced corn output prospects.
  
• India: Past El Niños brought dry weather across northwest India; however, the monsoon was near normal this season and there was no adverse crop impact. India’s rice crop is a record.
  
• Central America: Abnormally dry conditions covered the region during June-October. The major El Niño impact in the region is nearly over as their rainy season has ended. The harvest has ended and grain yields are estimated below average.
  
• South America: Abnormally dry conditions have developed across northeast Brazil. Much of northwest, central and southern South America have been wetter than normal. In Argentina, excessive rainfall hampered wheat harvest and reduced quality, but is boosting corn output to a near- record level. In Ecuador and Peru, above-normal rainfall delayed rice planting.
  
• Western Canada and northern United States: This region experienced warmer and drier than normal rainfall in December. In the Canadian Prairies, where most of the wheat is spring varieties, additional precipitation is needed when the grain crop is planted in May.
  
• California: There has been no major El Niño impacts. In December, southern California experienced above normal precipitation, while near-to-below normal rainfall occurred in the north. Wetter than average weather is expected to continue throughout the winter.
  
• Southern United States: This area has experienced wetter than normal conditions that are related to El Niño. Wetter than normal conditions through March, with cooler than normal temperatures across the Gulf Coast States are forecast by the National Weather Service.

Last modified: Monday, August 29, 2005