Brazil: Post-Planting Soybean Update
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Planting
operations for the 2005/06 soybean growing season in Brazil came to an end in
late December, with virtually all areas of the country being sown within the
normal planting window. Timely rains during the October–December period across
the majority of the growing region gradually raised soil moisture levels,
ensuring strong early season vegetative growth and development.
The
USDA January estimate for Brazilian soybean production is a record 58.5 million tons,
from a harvested area of 21.5 million hectares. Area is forecast to
decline 6 percent this year while production is expected to increase 13
percent. Soybean acreage is expected to decline owing to a reversal of economic
conditions which has significantly reduced soybean profitability compared to
recent years. Farmers in Brazil experienced significant crop and financial
losses last season owing to drought, a strengthening currency, and declining
international soybean prices. The farmers' difficult financial situation has
been exacerbated by a reduction in available credit to plant the 2005/06 crop.
Government and private surveys of planting intentions have subsequently led
officials to believe that a modest reduction in soybean acreage will occur this
year, ranging from 4 to 7 percent. Post-planting surveys of actual sown acreage
will be carried out in the next few months, enabling crop area to be estimated with greater confidence.
Weather and Crop Conditions
December brought an end to planting operations across Brazil, and marked the
beginning of the most important growing period for the 2005/06 soybean crop.
The bulk of the crop will go through vegetative and reproductive growth stages
during January and February, with harvest generally occurring from mid-February
to the end of April. Rainfall during December was variable, but generally
sufficient to promote vigorous crop development. Compared to last year,
most areas of the country received increased rainfall, including the southern states (which
experienced severe drought from December through March). The southern states of Parana, Santa
Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul have been in a touch-and-go weather situation
since mid November, experiencing lengthy periods between storm fronts which
brought welcome rains. At the end of December virtually all major production
regions had adequate moisture except portions of central, western and southern
Parana, and western Santa Catarina. Soybeans in early growth stages are
quite tolerant of dry soil conditions, and agronomists in the southern region
report that the crop is progressing despite spotty rainfall. Weather in January and February throughout southern Brazil will be critical
in determining this year’s crop size. Crop water requirements increase
significantly as soybeans approach and pass through the reproductive stages.
Near-normal rainfall will be required in all of the southern states to prevent
moisture stress and reductions in crop yield potential.
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The
rainfall maps above illustrate the difference between rainfall conditions in
December 2004 and 2005. The top maps are from the U.S. Airforce gridded weather
data model, while the bottom pair are from the Brazilian government. Both
sources indicate a substantially better overall rainfall pattern in December
2005.
Current vegetative conditions, as indicated by vegetative index data (NDVI) from
the Spot Image satellite, are very positive. Over the great majority of the
country vegetative development is superior to the same time last year,
especially in the states north of Parana. The primary soybean growing areas in
northern and eastern Parana and northern Rio Grande do Sul are also doing very
well despite erratic rainfall during the past 6 weeks. The NDVI data do
illustrate, however, that much of southern Rio Grande do Sul and southwestern
Parana are experiencing much-reduced vegetative development, likely the result
of less than ideal moisture conditions.
Soil moisture conditions
across the country are also generally favorable, providing a good foundation for
future crop growth during January. December storm systems have drenched much of
the summer oilseed producing region, and have replenished the soil moisture
profile to full capacity. However, soil moisture reserves are scanty in
southern Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Parana which does not bode well for
developing crops in those areas. Near-normal rainfall is
required over all of southern Brazil during the next two months to ensure that
drought stress does not negatively impact crop yield and production. |