Russia:  Unfavorable Establishment Conditions for Winter Grains

Persistent fall dryness in Russia's key winter-grain production regions resulted in unfavorable establishment conditions for 2006/07 winter crops and likely contributed to a reduction in planted area.

Planting-progress data indicate that the sown area for 2006/07 winter grains will drop by 7 to 8 percent from last year.  As of November 22, with planting virtually complete, agricultural enterprises (which account for 80 percent of Russia's winter grain production) had sown 11.4 million hectares of winter grains compared to 12.3 million by the same date last year, according to SovEcon, an independent commodity-analysis group in Moscow.  About 85 percent of the year-to-year reduction in area occurred in the Southern District, which accounts for over half of Russia's winter wheat area and typically records the country's highest wheat yields.  

The dryness was especially severe in the southern Central District.  Surface-wetness data derived from microwave satellite imagery indicate that surface moisture was unusually low from late August through mid-October, the major time for fall planting and crop emergence in the Central District.  Dryness prevailed in the Southern District during the same time as well, but winter crop planting typically occurs later in the more southern regions and conditions had begun to improve in much of the Southern District before fall sowing was complete.  In general, however, conditions for winter grain establishment were unfavorable throughout European Russia, including the Southern District.  

Moisture conditions in the Central District and most regions of the key Southern District (including Krasnodar and Rostov territories) had improved significantly by the end of October with the arrival of beneficial precipitation.  Subsurface moisture reserves have begun to rebuild, and by early December were approaching or surpassing the levels of the previous year.  Despite the improvement, however, conditions for winter crops as they prepared to enter dormancy were worse than last year.  According to data gathered by the Federal Weather Center of Russia and provided by SovEcon, 12 percent of Russian winter crops were judged to be in poor condition as of November 25, compared to 4 percent at the same time last year and the five-year average of 6 percent.  

Meanwhile, fall conditions were even worse for winter grains in Ukraine.  Persistent dryness during the planting season contributed to a 20-percent reduction in the sown area of 2006/07 winter grains, to a reported 6.1 million hectares.

Daily temperature data indicate that winter grains have likely entered dormancy in the majority of the winter-grain zone of European Russia, including the Central District and the central Volga Valley.  In the southern oblasts of the Southern District (Krasnodar and Stavropol), unusually warm weather in late November and early December has likely delayed the hardening phase that winter crops pass through prior to full dormancy.  

Because of the length of the growing season and the remarkable resilience of winter wheat, no conclusions can be drawn regarding the potential yield of the 2006/07 crop.  Winter weather can have an enormous effect on final output: over the past three years alone, winterkill has ranged from 6 to 27 percent.  Favorable spring weather could enable the crop to compensate to a large degree for unfavorable fall weather.  The most critical consequence of the fall dryness could likely be the significant -- and irreversible -- reduction in sown area.