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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 2, 2002
Malaysian monthly average rainfall was 221 millimeters, 20 millimeters above
normal in the third quarter of 2002, and so has now been above normal for four
of the last eight quarters. The rainfall over the past two years has averaged near
normal, but has been somewhat irregular. Overall,
indications are that palm oil yield levels should be near normal for the remainder of
2002/03 marketing year (Oct.–Sept.). Low average rainfall in the first quarter of 2002 (Jan.-Mar.) would
portend poor yields in the fourth quarter of 2002, but production data from
October 2002 was fairly high at 1.2 million tons, suggesting that the negative
effect was mitigated by above normal rainfall in the fourth quarter of 2001.
Using the Malaysia rainfall data, yield for 2002/03 is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Malaysia Rainfall Regression Model (MRRM) at 3.70 tons per hectare. This is slightly below the 5-year average of 3.78 tons per hectare, but slightly above the 20-year average of 3.61 tons per hectare. Yields the last two years, in 2000/01 and 2001/02, were well above average at 4.06 and 3.95 tons per hectare respectively due to unusually favorable rainfall.
Using estimated area of 3.065 million hectares and the MRRM yield projection of 3.70 tons per hectare implies output of 11.3 million tons of crude palm oil for the 2002/03 marketing year. The MRRM projection is somewhat lower than the official USDA forecast for 2002/03, which is at 11.8 million tons. The USDA forecast is for essentially flat production for the third year in a row. Other forecasters are projecting output higher than 11.8 million tons for 2002/03. Higher yields and new plantations maturing in East Malaysia are cited as reasons for the higher projections. For further information see the October Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update (AGR number MY2053) available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp.
Note: The MRRM linear regression model was developed at the World Board and Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. It uses rainfall lagged 3 quarters, 1 year cumulative rainfall lagged 6 quarters, and time as independent variables regressed against yield. Because of the characteristics of linear regression, the model continues to increase projected yields even as rainfall becomes excessive; thus, the model tends to overstate yield when average monthly rainfall lagged 3 quarters is above 300 mm, and understate yield when rainfall is optimal. A variety of information sources are used in determining official USDA estimates for Malaysian palm oil.
