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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 17, 2002
In the USDA estimates released December 10, Argentina’s 2002/03 wheat production is forecast at 13.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 4 percent from last month, and 13 percent lower than last year’s output of 15.5 million. Wheat area is estimated at 5.9 million hectares, down 0.1 million or 2 percent from last month and down 13 percent from last year’s area of 6.8 million. Wheat harvest is underway with 27 percent collected as of December 6, 2002.
Heavy rains in November in southern Buenos Aires Province flooded some wheat area and increased the amount of crop loss. Particularly hard hit is the area in far southern Buenos Aires—the Tres Arroyos district. This is Argentina’s leading wheat producing area. The Argentine Secretariat of Agriculture reports that over 100,000 hectares have been lost in Tres Arroyos or about 10 percent of the planted area, but this report may overestimate the losses. Although flooded fields can be seen using satellite imagery, there are other areas in Tres Arroyos which have had standing water drain adequately.
Flooded fields from areas between Nechocea and Coronel Dorrego have been reported and confirmed by satellite imagery analysis. Surface water in the fields, especially in areas nearest the coast such as Energia, Orense, and Lin Cahel, can be seen in Landsat imagery. The standing water will result in areas that are not harvested or grain quality may suffer due to increased disease pressure. The satellite imagery analysis shows some areas in Tres Arroyos district that are doing better. Further west along the coast, near Gil, and in the center of the district—near Tres Arroyos, San Mayol, and Micaela Cascallares—flooded fields are draining well and damage to the wheat crop appears minimal. Wheat harvest in Tres Arroyos begins in mid-December and will be complete by the end of January.
The losses in southern Buenos Aires Province combined with losses due to hail in Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires Province resulted in a 100,000 hectare reduction in USDA’s December estimate. Wheat yields were reduced marginally due to increased disease pressure from the conditions in southern Buenos Aires Province and reduced input use.
Please see Crop Explorer for current crop condition information for Argentina and other countries.
