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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 12, 2002
Early prospects for Ukraine winter grains are good. Sown area will approach last season's 8.6 million hectares, according to the U.S. agricultural attaché in Kiev, and establishment conditions have been outstanding. Planting was 95 percent complete as of October 21, according to data from commodity-analysis group APK-Inform cited by the OsterDowJones news service; winter grains had been sown on 8.3 million hectares (compared to 8.5 million by the same date last year), including 6.8 (6.9) million of winter wheat. According the the Ministry of Agriculture, total sown area for 2002/03 winter grains was 8.6 million hectares, including 7.2 million of winter wheat.
Moisture conditions are excellent for winter grains, with no trace of the persistent dryness that hampered crop establishment in southern Ukraine last season. As of November 10, western Ukraine had a shallow layer of snow, but most areas of eastern and southern Ukraine were snow-free.
Temperatures also have been favorable for the winter grain crop's progress toward dormancy, with gradually colder weather since late October. In order for winter grains to achieve dormancy, average daily temperatures must remain below 5° Celsius for at least five days (the "hardening" stage), followed by roughly five days with temperatures below freezing. Winter grains in northern and central Ukraine most likely have nearly reached the dormant stage, but crops farther south will require another week of cold weather before becoming fully dormant.
Winter grains in southern Russia also have benefited from generally good establishment weather, although sown area to date is down over 10 percent from last year. According to Ministry of Agriculture data reported by the Interfax new agency, Russia's large agricultural enterprises, which produce 85 to 90 percent of the country's grain, had planted 12.5 million hectares of winter grains by October 15 compared to approximately 14.3 million by the same date last year. Fall sowing is usually over 90 percent complete by mid-October, but fields in the North Caucasus region–the country's prime winter wheat zone–are typically the last to be planted. Temperatures in the central Volga Valley have been similar to those in central Ukraine, gradually decreasing since late October, but weather has been relatively warm in the southern North Caucasus and winter grains have barely begun the hardening phase.
