|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 4, 2002
In early September an FAS analyst traveled to Mexico to assess summer crop conditions in the "bajio," the south-central Mexico plateau historically associated with grain production.
The term bajio originally applied to portions of the central plateau states Guanajuato, Queretaro, and Michoacan; however, today, Jalisco is also considered a core bajio state. Rain was widespread across the region during the entire trip, and was much welcomed by producers encountered along the route. Dryness was a concern for many fields in the weeks preceding crop travel; visit PECAD Crop Explorer to see weather and other crop information.
The Cortazar district of south Guanajuato state is spring/summer corn and sorghum territory that is largely irrigated from Solis Dam, however private wells are popular among those who can afford them. Presa Solis is a troublesome water source, as the dryness of recent years has often reduced this reservoir to a level where there is no water to be released. Click here to see the pattern of utilization for the central region in 2002. The water level of Solis Dam dropped to about 40 percent of capacity during the summers of 2000 and 2001, but fell to 20 percent of capacity during this summer. Although water levels at nearly all the dams in the region were below that of the previous 2 summers, Solis is the one most heavily involved in agricultural activities. Corn and sorghum are generally planted between April 1 and July 15 in this region, harvest starts September/December. Producers also rent their fields for the production of lettuce, cilantro, carrots, garlic. Barley is commonplace between summer corn cycles, harvested in early spring. Producers who do not receive seeds on company contract will frequently plant wheat in November/December, also harvested in early spring. Most of the grain from this region is purchased by a middle man, and re-sold to beef and dairy producers in Jalisco, pork producers in Jalisco and Michoacan, as well as national and international poultry producers. Although some may classify this corn as primarily feed, residents of this region consume the same corn as part of their normal diet.
A few miles to the southwest of the city Cortazar is Valle de Santiago, where producers have summer fields of alfalfa and corn. Harvest began in early September. Vegetables are popular alternatives in the region, some fields leased for broccoli production had yielded their third or fourth harvest for this season, and were being grazed by horses. Broccoli became popular 13 years ago to supply the international market. The price broccoli producers receive has rebounded from a December 2001 low of about 1,500 pesos per ton to its current 2,500-2,750 peso per ton. Observed were fields stressed by dryness in July and/or August, but few were harmed to the point that yields will be greatly reduced. The heavy rains of early September appeared to have offset the stress of the prior months, cobs and kernels were of normal size. Most of the sorghum in south Guanajuato state was 25-45 days from harvest, corn was 30-60 days from harvest. On some grain fields already harvested, garlic and onion plants were beginning to emerge. Click on the word to see historical Mexico spring/summer corn stats as well as sorghum.
Michoacan
North Michoacan state fields appeared to be planted earlier than did Guanajuato fields, stands were generally in good condition. Many corn ears were still in the dough stage, and sorghum not yet yellow. Their preference is to plant corn is in early May, harvest in November/early December, often followed immediately by barley. One producer’s entire corn crop was said to be for human consumption as tacos and enchiladas. This producer said sorghum production goes to the beef and poultry industries as well as horse ranches, and he has cattle that he can sell to the local market. The producer pointed to PROCAMPO as just enough assistance to cover the energy costs for one crop cycle. FAS/Mexico explained this program in GAINS report # 2117, excerpted here.
Another producer of dryland frijoles in the PROCAMPO program planted his field in June, expects to harvest in December and sell to a local buyer. This producer returned to beans following a sequence of unfortunate events. A well which went dry about 15 years ago, forcing him to move from irrigated beans to dryland maize and sorghum. These days the producer avoids sorghum because the birds extract so many seeds from the field as to ruin the stand before the plants emerge. Bean prices had attracted this producer and others away from corn this summer, but the annual monsoon stopped at the end of July, and did not resume until September. At the time of the FAS analyst 's visit, the beans were being monitored to see if they will bounce back from the dryness.
Laguna Cuitzeo in north Michoacan is an example of the tremendous pressure on water resources in north Michoacan. Click here to see how changing climatic conditions and increased human demand have resulted in the shinkage of one of Mexico's major bodies of water.
Jalisco
The FAS analyst visited Tapopan, one of Jalisco state’s major grain production areas, just thirty minutes northwest of the Guadalajara city limits. Officials from the local government office reported that approximately 200 producers reside in that region, with holdings varying in size from one hectare (about 25 percent of the total producer population) to 50-60 hectares (about 10 percent of the total). Although 95 percent of the cultivated area was in corn this year (and most years), there were also instances of switching out of corn in this region of Jalisco, with agave and grass farming as two prominent options. The cost of corn production has risen from 3-4,000 pesos per hectare five years ago to 5-6,000 pesos per hectare today. With average yields across the state of only 3.5 tons per hectare, revenues are low. The price paid for corn was 1,600 pesos per ton five years ago, but is 1,200 peso per ton today. There seems to be little profit in corn production given these prices and costs. The cost of sorghum production is less than corn, however income generated is drastically less too. With no storage facilities available, producers must sell quickly rather than withhold their crop from the market until the price improves. Credit is also a factor; the interest rate on loans is 6-7 percent, but all the loans must be paid off by January 26.
The annual monsoon was reportedly about 3 weeks late in arriving over Tapopan in 2002, and most producers took a May 28 downpour as the sign to begin planting. Rainfall was fairly consistently until late August, then resumed in early September. Still, soil moisture was less than optimum, which encouraged some insect infestations, but yields were not expected to be affected. Corn stalks looked healthy, the cobs and kernels were normal size. Harvest was expected to be widespread beginning the first of November.
Addition Points of View
The View From La Piedad de Cabadas, Michoacan
The View From Zapopan, Jalisco
