November 18, 2002

   Central Europe:  Needed Precipitation Returns to Balkans
But Delays Reduce Winter Grain Plantings;
Northern Countries Receive Excessive Precipitation

Rain Returns to the Balkans

Rain has been in short supply over Central Europe this year.  Spring and early-summer drought reduced 2002/03 winter grain production.  However, increased precipitation during the second half of summer improved prospects for late-planted summer crops, including corn and sunflower.  Storms with soaking rains occurred in the Balkans for the first autumn in three years, but this untimely precipitation has already threatened the recently planted 2003/04 crop.  The rain has improved soil moisture, returning it to normal and above-normal  for the first time in several years in Romania and Bulgaria   All of Central Europe, particularly he hard-hit areas of the Balkans, have not seen this much precipitation occur at planting since 1999.  Subsurface moisture levels increased, but recent precipitation has been heavy and occurred too quickly for optimal soil soaking.  The bulk of the rain occurred during September and October. The poor timing minimized benefits to agriculture, because it interfered with the summer harvest as autumn rains delayed collection activities and consequently delayed the fall sowing calendar that follows.  In Bulgaria, the summer harvest was significantly delayed because of heavy October rains.  FAS-Sofia recently reported that the corn harvest is far behind schedule.  Many fields will be left to overwinter and harvested next spring.  The rain forced autumn planting to occur later than normal, preventing full fall plant development.  Additionally, some farmers are expected to plant less area to winter grain because of the delayed harvest and wet fields, which has prevented the machinery from operating. Similar problems also occurred north of the Danube River in Romania when October rains increased corn moisture levels to an unacceptably high 30 percent. 

Surplus Rain Falls in Northcentral Europe at the End of Planting

Heavy rains fell in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia during October, hampering winter-crop establishment just before crops entered dormancy in early- to mid-November.  While rain caused more serious concerns in the Balkan countries, the surplus rainfall probably had little effect further north. The combination of earlier fall planting dates and the lack of excessive September rain in the north (it occurred only during October) probably minimized damage from excessive fall precipitation in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

Average Temperatures Drop below 5° Celsius, Ending Growing Season

Average temperatures in Central Europe have dropped below 5° Celsius, sending winter grains to ease into dormancy.  In the colder areas of eastern Poland, temperatures have dropped even lower, averaging below freezing, ending the growing season.

Precipitation
Northern Region:  Poland - Czech Republic - Slovakia
Middle Region:    Hungary - Northern Serbia - Western Romania
Southern Region:  Southern Romania - Northern Bulgaria

Average Temperatures
Poland
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Hungary
Northern Serbia
Southern Romania
Northern Bulgaria
 

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0138