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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 11, 2002
A Review of the Season's Weather and Its Effects
Drought has adversely affected much of the 2002/03 crop, with dryness beginning even before winter crops were sown in fall 2001. Generally, drought was most severe in Hungary and areas of Romania and Serbia, but it was also felt, to a lesser extent, in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Many farmers were forced to plant winter crops later than usual last autumn because of moisture deficits that existed during the traditional August though October planting window. Additionally, little rain fell during the winter and early spring. A significant change in the meteorological pattern didn't occur until late July. The rain that finally did come was useless for winter crops, which were almost all harvested. The rain did however, lower quality for late harvested wheat or for crops left in the fields. Any precipitation benefits derived for corn were reduced in the drought-afflicted areas because previous dryness had advanced crops well into their life cycle, past the most critical water-dependent stages. Some of the less drought-stressed areas however, had summer crops which did see significant improvements after an increase in precipitation during July and August.
There were fortunate areas which escaped the poor weather all together and produced good crops. Poland saw mostly normal weather during the crop year. Croatia and neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina escaped the region-wide drought completely, receiving abundant rainfall all season. Production of both corn and wheat in Croatia are estimated up, over last year to 2.3 million and 950,000 tons, respectively. Bulgaria saw favorable conditions and adequate rainfall early, but both Romania and Bulgaria experienced excessive rains during late spring, and again in late July, lowering wheat quality and delaying harvest. In early August, excessive rains fell on much of the central region, inducing severe flooding during the second week of August in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and eastern Germany. The abnormally high rainfall swamped the capital city of Prague and the large east German city of Dresden, causing numerous deaths and great property damage. The August floods had few negative agricultural consequences for the 2002/03 crop, having occurred largely after the wheat and barley harvest had occurred.
Current Production Estimates
Total 2002/03 wheat production in Eastern Europe is estimated at 31.0 million tons, down 12 percent or 4.1 million from 35.1 million collected from last year's bumper crop. Wheat and other early harvested crops were damaged the most from this year's drought. Corn production is also estimated down, but by 7 percent. This season's crop totaled 25.5 million tons, compared to 2001/02 at 27.5 million tons. Maize yields also suffered from a lack of rainfall, but not as severely as wheat, barley and rapeseed. The drought's most intense period occurred during winter and spring, not during summer when corn was at its peak water demand. Romania's corn crop was hurt significantly from moisture deficits. Conversely, Eastern Europe's sunflower seed production is estimated up 300,000 tons to 2.6 million. The hardy sunflower plant tolerated the drought much better than most all other field crops in Eastern Europe during the season.
Current Planting Conditions for 2002/03: Soil Moisture Levels
Explanation of subsoil moisture levels
Other Soil Moisture Maps
Percent surface and subsurface saturation
Surface soil moisture
September subsoil moisture map
September percent soil
saturation map
Production of Selected Major Crops in Eastern Europe (after October 2002 release)
Charted data for:
Tabular Production Data:
Weather Data
Temperatures: Map showing Europe's summer temperature anomalies
September Temperature Data
Precipitation Totals (Maps): The dry period: May 1 - July 31 The wet period: August 2002 September 2002 September Precipitation Anomaly
Precipitation Totals Graphed for Drought Areas *:
Vojvodina, Serbia
Southwest Slovakia
West Hungary
Eastern Hungary
West Romania
Southern Romania
* In graphs, 2001 = 2002/03 crop year (start of the growing season is September 2001)
Satellite Image
Vegetation Index showing late September vegetation conditions in Europe
Links
Recent Eastern Europe Crop Travel Report
USDA
Production Estimates, October 2002 Release
For the latest weather data and crop information occurring in the U.S. and around the world, be sure to visit the innovative and interactive crop monitoring tool recently released by PECAD. You can access it on the web at: PECAD Crop Explorer
