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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 20, 2003
Burma's 2002 main season rice crop experienced both drought and floods this year. Total rainfall was below normal and the distribution was irregular. Moderate-to-heavy monsoon rain in May provided good moisture for planting and transplanting, but unusually dry weather in July and early August stressed the crop. In mid-August, NDVI values (derived from AVHRR imagery) were below normal and lower than last year, when rainfall was more abundant. The monsoon rains returned in force during the second half of August, causing locally serious flooding and property damage in the northwest and central sections of the country. According to official sources, more than 400,000 hectares of farmland were flooded and thousands of people were made homeless in what was described as the worst flooding in 30 years. However, the Government of Burma later stated that the flooding was not responsible for rice shortages in the country as no stocks were lost and the movement of rice to the cities was uninterrupted. The flooding had abated by the end of August; the monsoon retreated on schedule in September. Unseasonably heavy rain was reported in mid-October in a few locations, but it was unlikely to harm the maturing crop or affect harvest progress.
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Harvesting of the main season crop is under way and will continue through December. The main season crop accounts for about 85 percent of Burma's total rice harvest. The current USDA production estimate for Burma's 2002 rice crop is 18.0 million tons (unmilled) from 6.3 million hectares, unchanged from last year.
Burma (Myanmar) is located in Southeast Asia and surrounded by Bangladesh, India, China, Laos, and Thailand. (Map) It has a tropical monsoon climate, characterized by a wet season from June through September, when the southwest monsoon bring widespread heavy rainfall, and a dry season from December through February, when clear weather and low temperatures prevail over the country. High mountains and broad plateaus surround a wide valley that extends north to south through the center of the country. The Irrawaddy and Chindwin rivers run through the valley, where the most productive farmland is located, and enter the Andaman Sea near the capital, Yangon (Rangoon.)
Burma's most important crop is rice, grown on about two-thirds of the total arable land in the country. Rice is the basic food crop and an important export commodity. Planted area was stable throughout the 1980s at 4.5-4.8 million hectares, but it increased sharply in the 1990s in response to government policies that mandated area expansion. (Area graph) Paddy production increased from an average10-12 million tons in the 1980s to more than 18 million tons in 2000/01. (Production graph) During the 1980s, the production increase was due primarily to rising yields; however, in the 1990s the increase came mainly from higher planted area. Rice yields in the past 10 years have been irregular and relatively stagnant, exceeding 3.0 MT/HA only once, in 2000/01, before dropping again in 2001/02. (Yield graph) Yield increases have reportedly been limited by inferior seed quality and the high price and shortages of fertilizer and other inputs. Farmers also have little incentive to improve yields or make capital investments because the State retains ownership of all the land.
Burma has a mandatory rice procurement policy in which farmers must sell a fixed amount of rice to the government each year at less than half the market price. If farmers do not produce enough to meet their quota, they must buy extra rice on the market to make up the deficit. The Government uses the procured rice to provide rations to poor people, the army, and other select groups. It also exports rice to pay for critical imports, such as oil. Recent press reports describe a tight rice supply situation in Burma this year. Due to high inflation and an overvalued currency, the market price for rice has increased by 200 percent in one year and is now too high for many people to afford. Farmers reportedly held back last year's crop to protest low quota prices and the government failed to meet its procurement target. To make matters worse, speculators are apparently hoarding rice, hoping the price will rise further.. The Government is hoping for a good harvest in 2002/03 to ease the supply crunch, diffuse the political tension, and fulfill its export targets.
