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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 24, 2002
Wheat cultivation in Brazil is highly concentrated in a few traditional southern states which enjoy a combination of relatively mild winter temperatures and reliable rainfall allow. The bulk of the crop is grown in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which account for roughly 90 percent of total national area and production. Growers were poised to expand crop area and benefit from strongly rising domestic grain prices as the 2002/03 growing season got underway in May. Timely rains ensured that the bulk of the crop was sown within the normal planting window, and that soil moisture supplies were adequate to help establish the crop. Generally supportive showers were received throughout the winter growing season, leading most observers to expect crop yields and production would rise well above last year's level. However, Brazil’s wheat crop is subject to periodic frost episodes, and this year the outbreaks occurred when crops were in sensitive reproductive growth phases. USDA currently forecasts 2002/03 wheat area at 1.85 million hectares, up 0.125 million or 7 percent from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 3.3 million tons, down 0.4 million or 11 percent from last month, but up 0.05 million or 2 percent from last year’s harvest. Wheat yields are forecast at 1.78 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and slightly below the near-record yields achieved last season.
The pre-planting period of March-April 2002 was extremely dry in all growing areas except Rio Grande do Sul, with little or no rainfall occurring from March to mid-May. Drought conditions gripped large areas of prime farmland in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Goias, Minas Gerias, and Santa Catarina, withering winter corn crops and threatening the yet-to-be planted wheat crop. As the planting window opened in early May, prospects for the wheat crop were questionable, as soil moisture supplies were critically low. However, a cold front sweeping through Paraguay on May 17th brought heavy rains to the wheat region, bringing a dramatic end to persistent drought which had plagued the region, and restored soil moisture to optimum levels.
During most of the 2002/03 growing season, crops rarely experienced moisture stress as soil moisture reserves and periodic showers kept the growing environment near optimum. Rainfall totals during May-October were substantial, averaging between 500-1000+ mm in the primary wheat regions of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. This year’s winter rainfall pattern compared favorably to that witnessed the previous year, which led to near-record crop yields. Rainfall during May-October was above normal in most growing areas, with the exception of the minor producing states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Sao Paulo. Frost outbreaks were reported in the first week of September, with varied intensities and damage estimates. An analysis of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) daily weather data showed the minimum temperatures dipped to 0° C on four consecutive days from September 1-4, though the lowest temperatures of -3°C were recorded in highland areas on September 2-3. The WMO data indicate that Parana experienced the coldest temperatures, with the frost coinciding with highly sensitive flowering crop stages. Fortunately, the bulk of the frost-affected region experienced only light damage when temperatures dipped to 0°C.
The harvest period in Brazil runs from September to December,
with the earliest crops coming off in the minor producing states of Goias, Mato
Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo. By early October, about 40 percent
of the 2002/03 crop was reportedly harvested, with the minor states completed.
Harvest proceeded at roughly normal rates, despite repeated bouts with heavy
rains in the southern states. Parana reportedly has reaped about 60 percent of
its crop. Rio Grande do Sul is in the very early stages, with
approximately 5 percent harvested. Heavy rains are an increasing headache for
farmers in Rio Grande do Sul, with about 30 percent of the crop nearing
maturity. Soils are super-saturated, and persistent weather fronts continue to
bring unwelcome showers. Expectations are growing that additional crop losses
are very likely in this state before harvest operations wind down in December.
Satellite imagery indicates that vegetative conditions in Rio Grande do Sul are
more lush than last year. This is largely attributed to the difference in total
moisture received during the season, and especially during the past 6 weeks.
Parana, by contrast, shows that its crops are maturing more rapidly, with ripe
crops ready for harvest over the entire growing region.
