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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 20, 2003
According to the United Nations (FAO/World Food Program), more than 6 million people are now at risk of hunger in Zimbabwe, and imports of 1.9 million tons of grain will be needed in the current marketing year to prevent starvation. The main reason for the current food shortage is severe drought during the spring of 2002, aggravated by an overall economic crisis. The Government of Zimbabwe's (GOZ) decision to take thousands of successful farms out of commercial production has made the situation worse. Zimbabwe and the entire southern Africa region will feel the economic, political, and social consequences of the land-redistribution policy will be felt for years.. Although the Government's goal of putting Zimbabwe’s farmland into the hands of indigenous black farmers may have long-term benefits, food production will suffer in the interim.
Corn and wheat are the two most important food grain crops in Zimbabwe. Combined corn and wheat production dropped to 750,000 tons in 2001/02, the smallest crop since 1991/92. Corn production in 2002/03 is forecast at 1.0 million tons, twice as high as last year but far short of the 1.8 to 2.0 million needed to meet domestic demand. Wheat production in 2002/03 is expected to drop by 40 percent to about 150,000 tons due to lower planted area and yield.
Commercial farmers normally produce about 30 to 40 percent of Zimbabwe's corn crop, but they account for up to 70 percent of output during drought years. They also produce the bulk of the corn that is exported when surpluses are available. Total corn production has been trending downward since 1988/89, while area peaked in the mid 1990's and has been dropping ever since. Corn yields in Zimbabwe are highly variable because of erratic rainfall patterns that can often cause drought or floods. The average commercial corn yield of 5.0 MT/Ha is about 5 times higher than yields from communal lands. The disparity is due in part to better soils and climate in the main commercial crop areas, more inputs, and modern management practices.
Three years ago, good weather helped Zimbabwe produce a bumper crop of 2.15 million tons, of which more than 800,000 tons came from the commercial sector. In 2000/01, production dropped by 680,000 tons to a disappointing 1.47 million due to lower planted area and yield. Commercial corn area had dropped by more than 50 percent (from 162,000 hectares to 74,000 hectares) for several reasons, including low corn prices, unhappiness with Grain Marketing Board policies, and disruptions caused by the land-redistribution program. Yields in 2000/01 were lower than the previous year due to untimely rainfall, although they were still above the long-term trend.
In 2001/02, planted area in the non-commercial sector increased by about 250,000 hectares in response to government incentives, but commercial corn area dropped by another 12,000 hectares (to 62,000 hectares). The country suffered from one of its worst droughts on record, which had a devastating impact on yield in every sector. Commercial yield only reached 2.45 MT/Ha, down about 50 percent from normal. However, this yield was 10 times higher than the yield in the non-commercial sector. Commercial production in 2001/02 was estimated at 150,000 tons, the smallest crop on record. Total production in 2001/02 was only 500,000 tons, the smallest crop since 1991/92.
Corn production in 2002/03 is forecast at 1.0 million tons, up 500,000 from last year and but less than half the size of the 1999/00 crop. Planting will begin in October/November after the start of the 2002/03 rainy season. Commercial area is forecast to drop to about 30,000 hectares in 2002/03 as pressure on commercial farmers to leave the land intensifies. For the farmers who remain, the high cost of inputs and low government procurement prices will be discouraging factors. The Agriculture Minister announced in late July that the corn procurement price for 2002/03 has been raised to by 87 percent above last year to compensate for rising input costs, but this won't begin to match the rate of inflation, which has been rising at more than 100 percent every month since November 2001. Planted area in the non-commercial sector is also expected to drop this year. The 2001/02 drought reduced the output of hybrid seed for the coming season, and many farmers, who lost all their crops last year, will not have the cash or credit to buy seeds for planting. Meteorologists have warned that a developing El Nino could disrupt the 2002/03 rainy season, which could also affect planting decisions in the coming year. Assuming normal weather in 2002/03, yields in all sectors are expected to be higher than last year. The forecast yield of 0.8 MT/HA is below trend due to a larger-percentage of low yield communal cropland and lower projected yield on resettled commercial cropland.
The GOZ has strongly promoted 2002/03 winter corn production in the Lowveld region of Zimbabwe this year, an area where corn has not been regularly grown because of frost danger and insect problems. About 2,000 hectares were planted, and production of 8 to 10,000 tons can be expected.
More than 90 percent of Zimbabwe’s wheat is grown under irrigation by the commercial sector. The crop is planted in May and harvested in October/November. Zimbabwe normally produces about 300,000 tons of wheat annually, just shy of its domestic demand of about 360,000 tons. Output in 2001/02 was an estimated 250,000 tons, down marginally from the previous year due to slightly smaller area. The land-redistribution program interfered with normal farm operations in the commercial sector in 2002 and many farmers found it difficult to plant their wheat crop. Commercial wheat area dropped by an estimated 50 percent to 20,000-25,000 hectares in 2002/03. Last-minute efforts by the GOZ increase wheat area in the small-scale commercial sector and resettled farms were partly successful, and total area for 2002/03 is forecast at 40,000 hectares, down only slightly from last year. Wheat yield from the additional non-commercial area is expected to be lower than average due to planting delays, input shortages, and serious disruptions to the irrigation network. Production for 2002/03 is currently estimated at 150,000 tons, down 40 percent from last year, although output could be significantly lower if harvesting is disrupted.
On June 24, 2002, the GOZ ordered about 2,900 white farmers (out of roughly 4,500) to stop all farming operations immediately and vacate their property by August 10. Any designated farmer who continued to plant, cultivate, or harvest his crops in the interim was subject to arrest and prosecution. This action by the GOZ is latest chapter of a land resettlement process that began in February 2000 when squatters and "war veterans" seized hundreds of white-owned farms in an often-violent campaign, supported by the Government, to reclaim farmland that they believed had been stolen by white colonists in the 1800's. In July 2000, the GOZ launched a "fast-track" land reform program to formalize and speed up the process of land acquisition and resettlement by landless blacks from the crowded communal areas. According to the Commercial Farmers Union, more than 5,000 out of about 6,000 commercial farms were targeted for takeover at that time. (Some of the 4,500 farmers operated multiple farms.) This "fast-track" program opened the door to even more disruption in the agricultural sector. Over the next two years there were countless incidents of home invasion, intimidation, theft, vandalism, and even murder, all intended to force the targeted white farmers off their land.
The disruptions and uncertainty surrounding the land reform program had a chilling effect on 2000/01 commercial crop production, particularly corn (maize), which is Zimbabwe's staple food grain. Commercial corn area dropped by 88,000 hectares in 2000/01 and production declined by more than 50 percent. By the summer of 2001, local analysts warned that corn stocks were seriously depleted, area and production was likely to drop again in 2001/02, and serious food shortages were on the horizon, but the GOZ believed the situation was manageable and it continued to carry out its resettlement agenda. In November 2001, a revised and strengthened Land Acquisition Act listed more white-owned commercial farms for seizure and removed all rights of the designated owners to occupy, hold or use the land except for the homestead area. The Commercial Farmers Union estimated that 90 percent of its members were affected by the new regulations.
Continued pressure on the commercial sector resulted in lower corn area in 2001/02 (down an additional 12,000 hectares), but the GOZ hoped that increased area (up 250,000 hectares) in communal areas would boost production and offset any losses in the commercial sector. However, the weather did not cooperate. Planting was delayed in many areas by unusually heavy spring rainfall, and yields were slashed by one of the worst droughts in a decade.
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By April 2001, it was clear that Zimbabwe's 2001/02 corn crop was a dismal failure. Production was estimated at just 500,000 tons, down almost 1.0 million from the previous year, and corn stocks were practically nil. Production of all other summer crops (including sorghum, millet, oilseeds, cotton, tobacco, and beans) also dropped in 2001/02 due to the drought. In response to the disaster, the GOZ announced a state of emergency and asked for help from the international community to avoid a possible famine. The United Nations (World Food Program) issued an appeal in May 2002 for 1.9 million tons of grain for the estimated 6.0 million people in Zimbabwe who were threatened with hunger. Although several other countries in the region were also suffering from food shortages due to drought in 2002, the situation in Zimbabwe was considered one of the most critical.
Despite the current acute shortage of food in Zimbabwe, the GOZ still intends to evict nearly 3,000 commercial farmers in August and attempt to resettle thousands of black families by the start of the 2002/03 summer crop planting season in October A few farmers have asked the courts to overturn the Government's eviction order, and some have expressed their intent to continue farming, illegally if necessary, but it seems unlikely that the eviction orders will be rescinded. It's unclear how rigorously the orders will be enforced, but many have already gone. Hundreds of commercial farmers have left the country over the past two years, some of them relocating to Zambia, Uganda, Mozambique, or other British Commonwealth countries, and this exodus is expected to accelerate. Observers in Zimbabwe report that all operations have ceased on many commercial farms, prime farmland that should be planted in wheat is lying fallow, cash crops have been neglected, and the irrigation network is in serious disrepair. Contributing to the chaos has been disputes between different groups claiming commercial farmland for themselves - squatters, war veterans, government officials and army officers, opportunists, and communal residents. The GOZ has only begun to address the land-ownership problem.
Of special concern is the fate of hundreds of thousands of black farm workers and their dependents, totaling more than 1 million people, who could be affected or displaced by the closure of commercial farms where they worked and lived. Thousands have already lost the housing, jobs and income, medical care, and schooling that was provided by their employers, and they have borne the brunt of the political violence between the Government and the opposition. Only a handful have been included in the resettlement program, and many originally come from neighboring countries and have no family ties or communal homes in Zimbabwe to fall back on. Their situation is precarious.
The GOZ claims that black indigenous farmers who will soon occupy the vacated commercial farmland can achieve the same or higher food production as the former owners. While it's possible that total grain area may increase as fallow land is brought into production and land now devoted to cash crops or grazing is planted with grain, there is no guarantee that production can match the pre-resettlement levels. There are many unanswered questions: Is the resettled land suitable for grain production? Will there be enough high-quality seed and affordable agricultural inputs? Will sufficient irrigation be available? Do the settlers have the necessary skill and training to practice commercial agriculture? Will commodity prices be high enough to encourage farmers to produce crops for the market? Will resettled farmers get clear title to their land and be able to obtain loans for capital improvements? Will the weather cooperate? What will be the short-term and long-term ripple effects of the Government's land reform experiment?
Agriculture contributes about 15 percent of Zimbabwe's Gross Domestic Product, and the export of agricultural products generates about 40 percent of the country's foreign exchange. Zimbabwe's commercial farms are mostly located in the northern and central part of the country, where the land is most suitable for intensive cultivation. Most are located in the provinces of Mashonaland (East, West, and Central), Midlands and Manicaland. They have historically produced about 90 percent of Zimbabwe's wheat, 95 percent of the soybean crop, 30 to 50 percent of the corn, and almost all of the country's tobacco and high-value horticulture crops (fruit, vegetables, spices, tea, sugar, fresh flowers, etc.) The GOZ has announced that it intends to focus on grain production, so it's certain that production of cash crops will drop, at least in the short run. This has two results - the country will now have to import cash crops it used to produce domestically, and it will lose the profits and foreign exchange it used to receive from high-value exports.
Crop yields are normally much higher in the commercial sector than in the non-commercial sector, so any reduction in commercial area has a disproportionate reduction in total output. For example, commercial corn area has dropped by an estimated 130,000 hectares in the past three years. Assuming a normal yield of 5.0 MT/Ha, this amount of land would produce about 660,000 tons of corn if it were planted.
According to local reports, up to 30 percent of the commercial beef herd has already been liquidated by departing commercial farmers, many cattle have been stolen or killed by poachers, and animal diseases are spreading rapidly. Also, the supply of corn for feed will certainly be lower than normal and very expensive. The loss of Zimbabwe's high-quality livestock will cut meat exports to Europe, which had been strong in recent years. Commercial dairy cow numbers have also dropped due to the farm disturbances, and the availability of milk has declined.
Aside from crop production losses, the crisis in the commercial farm sector has had a ripple effect on the overall economy. As the commercial sector shrinks, the businesses and institutions that were connected with it (food processing plants, banks, exporters, farm input suppliers, utilities, local government services) will all suffer. The reduction of cash crops for export will aggravate the current shortage of foreign exchange, while the cost of imported grain and other commodities will be extremely high. This will all have a negative impact on the economy, which has been mired in a recession for four years. The Minster of Finance recently reported that the economy could contract by 10 percent in 2002, after dropping 7.3 percent in 2001.
Finally, there are two more factors affecting Zimbabwe's food supply which should be briefly mentioned. Meteorologists are closely tracking the development of an El Nino event which could have a significant impact on the weather in southern Africa during the 2002/03 growing season. Although it is too early to make accurate forecasts, the region has experienced drought during previous El Nino events, most notably in 1991/92. And the impact of the HIV/AIDS virus on the health and productivity of Zimbabwe's people cannot be overstated. According to United Nation statistics, an estimated 1.5 to 2.7 million people in Zimbabwe were living with HIV/AIDS as of the end of 2001, out of a total population of less than 12 million. The infection rate for adults of 34 percent is one of the highest in the world, and the life expectancy at birth has dropped to less than 38 years. Zimbabwe's population growth rate is negative. The high prevalence of HIV/AIDS has exacerbated all aspects of the food shortage crisis in the country. For example, people with HIV/AIDS are more likely to die from hunger-related causes because their illness makes it difficult to farm or generate income to purchase food. As young and middle-aged adults die from disease, they leave behind hundreds of thousands of orphans and elderly without financial support. Massive efforts will be needed by the Zimbabwe government and the international community to meet this health crisis.
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