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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 20, 2003
Dry conditions in eastern Australia have reduced production potential of the 2002/03 wheat crop. Production is forecast down due to continued dryness in Queensland (QLD), New South Wales (NSW), and Western Australia (WA), which has negatively affected both area and yield. Area is forecast lower this season, a result of a lack of adequate rainfall at planting, and later for crop establishment. Significant area reductions are anticipated in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Wheat area in the southern growing states of Victoria (VIC) and South Australia (SA) is expected to be similar to last season, in response to favorable conditions, a later planting window, and improved price expectations.
Wheat areas of WA, NSW, and QLD received only 40-60 percent of normal precipitation for the period May 1 to July 31, causing very dry conditions. Additional rainfall is needed by September to avoid further yield loss. The last major drop in production occurred in 1994, also a result of very dry conditions, particularly in the east. A comparison of percent of normal rainfall received during July 1994 to July 2002 shows a similar dry pattern through QLD, NSW, and parts of Victoria.
Drought conditions have affected the wheat belt of southern Queensland, and central and northern New South Wales. Imagery shows drastic reduction in planted area or delays occurring in 2002 as compared 2001.
Wheat is Australia’s most important crop, with a seasonal gross value approaching three billion Australian dollars. Australian wheat is a major competitor with US wheat exports. Wheat is grown as a "winter" crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with pasture. Wheat production is concentrated on the mainland in a narrow crescent known as the "wheat belt." The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland from the Dividing Range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the south west area of Western Australia. Wheat planted area the past five seasons has averaged 11.9 million hectares, producing 22.6 million tons, with a national yield of 210 kg/ha.
The sub-humid and semi-arid zones have large areas of less leached, more fertile soils such as red brown and black earths, which are important to Australia's wheat industry. Australian soil generally does not show a correlation with climate, mainly because of the persistence in certain regions of leached soils formed in earlier, wetter climatic cycles. These soils, and many in the higher rainfall areas, are low fertility, often needing trace elements as well as phosphorus, nitrogen, and sulfur. Artificial fertilizers allow these soils to support highly productive pastures which have potential for mixed farming.
