October 20, 2003

Kharif Rice Areas Go Dry

The 2002 Monsoon Rains Show Unfavorable Distribution for the India Rice Crop

The India monsoon has weakened after a relatively good start.  Dryness now affects a large portion of the country.  Currently the spatial pattern of the weak monsoon appears to be mainly impacting rice production regions.  The south-west monsoon is critical as approximately 86 percent of total rice production is dependent on the monsoon rains.  If dry conditions continue this year's fall rice harvest prospects will be reduced. Planting has been delayed in some areas and a portion of the planted crop is experiencing moisture stress. Traditionally irrigated rice states such as Punjab, Haryana and portions of Uttar Pradesh where irrigation capacity is most available are facing problems with lack of irrigation recharge, and higher plant water requirements from sunny conditions and accompanying above normal temperatures. 

Analysis of rainfall distribution for the 2002 monsoon as a function of rice productivity reveals mixed conditions in among the major states.  Gujarat and southern Rajasthan received large amounts of rain earlier in June, however less than two percent of the rice crop is located in this area.  Similarly areas of Maharasthra and Madhya Pradesh that received significant rainfall are not historically rice producing districts of the states.  Better conditions favored Orissa, West Bengal, and Bihar though parts remain below normal.  

A quantitative analysis of percent of precipitation received since June 1 provides the following bar graph.  The distribution of rainfall resulted in 34 percent of productive rice area receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall.  On the positive side approximately 37 percent of rice production area received 75 to 100 percent of normal rainfall for the time period.  Clearly this graphs shows distribution of rainfall for the 2002 monsoon shifted toward the left or below normal levels.  Overall, approximately 90 percent of the production area received less than normal (100%) of normal rainfall.

Quantification of the above  map in graph format: Zonal Rainfall Analysis as Function of Rice Productivity Intensity  .

Monsoon activity and more even distribution of rainfall need to occur within the next two weeks to retain yield potential.    

Background Information on India Rice Crop

India is one of the major rice producing and consuming countries in the world. Rice is also the single most important crop in Indian agriculture. It is produced in all the states of the country and is part of the staple diet of a very large section of the Indian population.  Rice is grown in three seasons in India, autumn and winter in kharif and summer or rabi. The autumn season (53 percent of total production) sowing is accomplished between March and August and harvesting is between June and December. The winter crop (33 percent) sowing takes place between June and October and harvesting is between November and April. This indicates the high dependence of the rice crop on the south-west monsoon which is occurs over the subcontinent from June through September.  The remaining 12 percent is sown in the summer season.

Irrigation facilities available in rice producing areas averages about 43 percent of the rice growing area, with state by state distribution of irrigation highly variable. In Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Tamil Nadu over 95 percent of the area under rice is irrigated. In Bihar, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh only 30 to 45 percent of the rice cultivated area is irrigated.  Rice production has undergone a qualitative change in India over the years. Superior varieties of rice have replaced coarse varieties in several regions. Exports focus on basmati rice - a premium variety of the grain renowned for its long grain and fragrance. Basmati rice is produced only in Pakistan and India. In India, Basmati production is limited to the regions of Punjab, Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh.  Non-basmati rice is exported mostly to Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Kenya.

For more information, contact James Cornfield  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.