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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
June 25, 2002
Mexican grains need improved soil moisture in July to prevent further crop stress. USDA forecasts Mexico's 2002/03 corn production at 19 million tons, down 600,000, or 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 7.7 million hectares, down 80,000 or 1 percent from last year. USDA forecasts Mexico's 2002/03 sorghum production at 6.85 million tons, up 350,000, or 5 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 1.95 million hectares, down 10,000 or 1 percent from last year. USDA forecasts Mexico's 2002/03 rice production at 185,000 tons, down 30,000, or 14 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 64,000 hectares, down 15,000 or 20 percent from last year.
Mexico entered the 2002 Hurricane Season (June to November) hopeful as in past years that several tropical storms will come ashore and deposit ample rainfall while doing minimal harm to people and property. Extended periods of dryness have persisted across the northern tier of Mexican states neighboring the United States and a few areas farther south. A normal to above-normal monsoon season is needed to replenish Mexican reservoirs, now at historic lows. A busy hurricane season and/or an unusually rainy monsoon season would boost Mexican grain prospects.
Recent seasons have not been particularly bountiful, so a growing human population and its expanding requirements are taxing the environment. Meanwhile current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts call for the continuing development of a weak-to-moderate El Niño in the Pacific Ocean through the end of 2002, but this scenario historically points to little or no El Niño impact on Mexico this summer. An improved soil moisture profile is needed in July 2002 to prevent crop stress.
Mexico's major summer grain production states lie in the southernmost two-thirds of the country. This region has a wide window for planting and harvesting; temperatures linger in the 70ºF- plus range for consecutive months. The annual monsoon’s duration is longest and most consistent here. The center-third of Mexico encompasses the Central Plateau, an area where the terrain levels off and the fertile soil has fed the population for hundreds of years. Corn seeding can begin here as early as March, but generally occurs in April-June. Most fields enter the flowering stage in July.
Sorghum field seeding follows corn, and can begin as early as April but usually occurs in May and June. Again, July is the main month for flowering. Average temperatures were variable across the region this spring, and generally met the minimum temperature threshold for corn and sorghum germination of 50-55ºF. In the higher elevations of Michoacan state, the city of Morelia saw temperatures 2-3 degrees below normal for nearly a week in late May, but overall temperatures were well above normal. Guadalajara, 170 miles to the northwest in Jalisco state, experienced temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal several days in May, and the pattern held into mid-June. Conversely, the city of Guanajuato less than 200 miles to the east experienced a few episodes of below normal temperatures, but mostly remained 2-4 degrees above normal through mid-June. 200 miles east of Guanajuato, the city of Toluca (in Mexico state) was frequently 3-4 degrees below normal for the same period.
The Central Plateau was favored with above-normal precipitation in early April. Rainfall dropped to almost none at month’s end. Above-normal precipitation, but not as widely dispersed as in April, occurred in the Central Plateau in May, followed by more evenly distributed showers in June. A negative situation improved to where surface soil held moisture was sufficient to support seed germination and plant development by June 10th. This rainfall was particularly helpful for irrigated fields. Reservoirs whose levels already stand below normal were not overwhelmed at the start of the season by demands for water releases to support germination. This could prove helpful as summer heat builds and moisture uptake in all crop fields increases.
The top region for rice production is along Mexico's southeast coast in Veracruz, Tabasco and Campeche. These states feature predominately non-irrigated fields planted mostly in May and harvested beginning in September. Most fields enter the flowering stage in July. Average temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico states were not uniform, but largely held above the 70ºF mark, and were conducive to rice germination in dry soil. Further inland, Orizaba (Veracruz state) experienced an early-May bout of 5-7 degrees above-normal heat, then fell to 3-5 degrees below normal approaching June. Approximately 240 miles to the southeast in the same state, the coastal city Coatzacoalcos was 2-3 degrees below normal for most of May, fluctuating above and below normal in early June. Villahermosa, 110 miles further east into Tabasco state, was generally 2-3 degrees above normal for the period. On the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Campeche experienced temperatures 3-7 degrees above normal for most of May and June.
Mid-April rains followed by two weeks with little precipitation gave the region surface moisture for rice planting and farmers time to cultivate the fields. Rainfall since mid-May has alternated between very little and too much, raising the possibility that some localities needed to re-plant in June due to washed-out fields. Wet fields in areas where the temperature did not rise above 82ºF may have also failed to germinate. Meanwhile, some rice fields have insufficient moisture to make a summer stand. Actual planted area will reveal itself by late July.
Hurricane season from Canada to Central America is nominally defined by NOAA as June 1st through November 30. Records indicate that August through October is the time frame when most of the major storms develop in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. NOAA views an average hurricane season as one in which no more than 2 hurricanes make landfall in the United States, and at least one makes landfall in the Caribbean Islands. Mexico's National Meteorological Service supports the forecast that the Pacific Ocean will be the scene of 16 tropical storms this year (the 5-year average is 14.5), and 12 in the Atlantic Ocean (the 5-year average is 10.3). A normal to above-normal monsoon season bolstered by a very active hurricane season would be the ideal replenishment for reservoir levels that are at or near historic low levels in most regions region of the country.
