|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
June 21, 2002
Harvesting is now underway in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia with aggregate 2002/03 cereal production estimated at 7.8 million tons, down from 8.2 million last year. Harvesting of grains (almost solely wheat and barley) occurs during the months of June and July. Over the last five years, total combined wheat and barley production averaged 7.3 million tons. This region however, typically sees wide swings in its output, primarily due to highly variable weather and its low level of irrigation and technology. Cereal production has ranged from a low of 4.3 million tons in 2000, to a high of 10.9 million in 1998. Specifically, 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 5.6 million tons, down from 6.3 million last year, but above the five-year average of 5.3 million. The 2002/03 barley crop is estimated at 2.2 million tons, up 300,000 from last year’s harvest. Barley is planted on more marginal lands, which saw greater precipitation this year than last.
In the aggregate, combined wheat and barley production for Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia is down 400,000 tons from last season. Locally however, crops in Northwest Africa experienced a myriad of conditions in arriving at this total. Almost all season, Algeria proved to be the boundary between the adverse and beneficial weather patterns. Beneficial weather began the winter grains season aiding eastern areas but ended the season favoring the west. Initially, all agricultural areas in Algeria and Tunisia started the season with plentiful and timely rains. Morocco was the regional exception, experiencing a late start to the season because planting rains did not arrive until mid-December. Morocco and western Algeria later became very dry during a period of virtually no precipitation during January and February. Meanwhile, eastern Algeria and Tunisia saw occasional winter showers, assisting in grain emergence and early development. Tunisia, and western and central Algeria later suffered extensively when showers ended before the critical spring reproductive period began. The crop withered in March and April with no relief from the dryness. Spring rains did however fall abundantly in western Algeria and Morocco, bolstering yields and raising late season harvest expectations Morocco.
Click to access Northwest Africa's combined five-year wheat and barley production
Tunisia faces a very poor 2002/03 winter grains harvest. Cereal Production (almost 100% wheat and barley) dropped dramatically when compared with last season because of a severe lack of spring rainfall. In addition to a moisture deficit, several days in the spring saw sirocco winds blowing dry, hot air off the Sahara, further enhancing the dryness. Compared to last season, wheat production dropped 40 percent or 400,000 tons to 600,000. Barley production dropped by a third to just 100,000 tons. The 2002/03 winter grain crop, now being harvested, is estimated at a combined 700,000 tons, just under half the five-year average of 1.46 million tons.
The 2002/03 grain situation however, didn’t always look so dismal.
Initially a positive scenario developed from frequent and plentiful rains at
planting, and continued through emergence last autumn. The timely arrival
of autumn planting rains in November allowed Tunisian farmers to sow during the
optimal time-window, enhancing yield possibilities. In addition, the continuing
late fall rains helped to stabilize the crop as it emerged and developed before
the brief North African winter. The agricultural situation in Tunisia had
greatly deteriorated by spring. During winter and spring, frequent
yield-boosting storms soaked Morocco and Western Algeria but these same storms
bypassed Tunisia and eastern Algeria, leaving them bone-dry and dashing
hopes for a decent-sized crop. As a result, the drought has now left the
country anticipating a much below average harvest this year (2002/03).
In contrast to Tunisia, Morocco has seen a positive reversal of fortunes, with its estimated 2002/03 crop production recently being increased. The new optimism is a result of widespread spring precipitation that ended a long-term drought. The fall planting season started disappointingly for Moroccan farmers as it began a month or more behind schedule. Rains, which signal the start of planting activities, did not return to Morocco until mid-December. This led to less area being planted since the delay prohibited some farmers from sowing fields in time. Morocco’s beneficial March and April rains were frequent and well above normal. Showers extended far into the more arid and agriculturally marginal southern and eastern regions where a hardier barley crop, instead of wheat is grown. While spring precipitation was too late for any unplanted area to be seeded, the crop in the ground surely will see improved yields. Any increase in production is particularly welcome since the country has suffered from several years of drought-reduced crops. Morocco’s estimated 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 3.0 million tons and barley production is estimated at 1.5 million. Last year's wheat production, bolstered by a good crop in the north totaled 3.3 million tons, while barley production was 1.2 million. The 2002/03 production estimate is 11 percent above the five-year average for wheat and 17 percent above the five-year average for barley.
Click to access Morocco's five-year wheat and barley production
Algeria’s 2002/03 winter wheat production is estimated at 2.0 million tons, unchanged from last year. Barley production is estimated at 550,000 tons (down just slightly from last year). Each crop is forecast above the five-year average, which is 1.4 million tons for wheat and 431,000 tons for barley. All of Algeria's agricultural regions had a good start to the 2002/03 season with timely November rains beginning the planting season. Western Algeria saw weather trends very similar to that of the adjacent country of Morocco. The pattern included plentiful early winter rains, damaging dryness during January and February and the return of abundant precipitation in April and May. The spring rain in western Algeria is expected to have greatly improve yields since the earlier dryness, thus allowing for a very good crop. Eastern and central sections of the country also suffered dryness during the winter, but unlike western Algeria, they saw no relief in spring. A severe precipitation shortage developed into a damaging drought in both central and eastern Algeria. The central region appears to have struggled the most with a moisture deficit and its harvest is expected to correspondingly have the lowest yields.
Click to access Algeria's five-year wheat and barley production
| Tunisia | Morocco | Algeria |
The agriculturally fragile region of the Maghreb, often referred to as Northwest Africa, comprises a small swath of arable land along both the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of Morocco, and along the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. Once known as the breadbasket of the Roman empire, its modern production of wheat and barley doesn't fulfill the needs of its own population. Periodic droughts compound the situation by limiting production and forcing more imports on the countries. The land is predominantly rain-fed, but flood irrigation is practiced on the Moroccan lowlands. Northwest Africa's agriculture teeters on the limits of a marginal climate. The Sahara Desert lies just below the Atlas Mountains to its south. Agriculture is constrained to no more than a maximum of 200 miles on some of the interior, rain-producing highlands, but is more commonly limited to just 100 miles from the coast. The rainy season is dependent upon the prevailing storm track to drop south. Unfortunately this optimal weather setup rarely lasts all season in the Maghreb, and the 2002/03 crop year was no exception with the many of the same areas seeing both drought and soaking rains.
Previous Update on Northwest Africa
International Weather
Data
