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May 23, 2002
Satellite imagery from May 1-15 indicates that winter-grain conditions in Ukraine and southern Russia were relatively good prior to a recent dry spell which has raised alarms among local officials and crop analysts. Vegetative indices, a measure of crop vigor derived from the infra-red imagery, suggest that the condition of the winter grain crop in Russia's key Southern District (in early May) was arguably better than last year, when the region achieved one of the highest grain yields in recent years. In Ukraine, conditions were mixed relative to last year's bumper crop: slightly better in the northeast, slightly worse in the west, and comparable elsewhere. (Subsequent imagery will provide information regarding the impact of May dryness and the development and yield potential of later-developing grains in the more northern crop-production regions.)
Dry weather has prevailed actually since mid-April in eastern and southern Ukraine (and since March in central Ukraine), and temperatures have been at near-normal levels following an unusually warm early spring. In Russia's Southern District, where roughly half of the country's winter wheat is grown, weather has been more favorable, although the Krasnodar region has been particularly dry in recent weeks. In most of the winter-wheat region of Russia and Ukraine, the crop has reached the boot (ear-formation) stage, slightly behind last year's pace but ahead of normal. In the southern-most regions of Russia and Ukraine, however, winter grains have reached reproductive stage and will soon enter grain-fill stage, the time of maximum water use. Yield potential could be reduced if the dryness continues.
The spring sowing campaign is largely complete in Ukraine and roughly half complete in Russia as of May 14, according to Ministry of Agriculture reports cited by the Reuters and Argus news agencies. Planting progress in Russia has been delayed by cool and wet May weather in the Urals region and western Siberia, following an unusually rapid pace earlier in the season.
(View USDA estimates of 2002/03 grain production for Russia and Ukraine.)
