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April 1, 2002
India: Winter Wheat Conditions Positive
Current Conditions Summary
Late-season conditions are creating an excellent finish for India's wheat crop.
Gradually warming March temperatures and light showers followed the ideal, seasonally
cooler February temperatures and significant rains. Analysis of satellite data supports this assessment showing increased
vegetation health and vigor during the critical flowering stages.
Precipitation and Analysis of Poor Growing Conditions
Precipitation during the flowering stage has
significantly improved the yield potential for much of India's wheat. The
Indian wheat crop, planted in November 2001, has benefited from seasonably
favorable weather. The early crop in Madhya Pradesh is currently being
harvested. The majority of the wheat will be harvested in late
April through early May. The breadbasket region of Punjab and Haryana had adequate irrigation
supplies for the season. The mostly irrigated crops in Punjab and Haryana
produce one third of India's wheat. The rainfed areas of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan, and other states produce two thirds India's wheat.
Cumulative precipitation amounts since sowing and throughout the season were
adequate for germination and establishment. Rainfed wheat areas received
beneficial rains during February when much of the crop was in the flowering
stage. Somewhat cooler temperatures followed by seasonal temperatures also
have contributed to near-ideal growing conditions in both the irrigated north
and rainfed areas. These conditions will result in above average yields in many
areas.
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Cumulative Precipitation - Indian Winter Grain Area |
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Rainfed Wheat Analysis |
Irrigated Wheat Analysis |
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| Rainfed: Production and Analysis Area Map | Irrigated: Production and Analysis Area Map |
Temperatures
Average daily temperatures for the agricultural region during the same time
period are near-normal, with somewhat cooler temperatures occurring in February.
March temperatures showed the desired gradual warming pattern essential for
grain development.
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Average Temperature - Indian Winter Grain Area |
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Rainfed Wheat Analysis |
Irrigated Wheat Analysis |
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| Rainfed: Production and Analysis Area Map | Irrigated: Production and Analysis Area Map |
Satellite Imagery
Rainfall this season returned to near-normal in some of the previously drought-stricken areas of the two previous winter seasons. In particular, the wheat producing states of Rajasthan and Gujarat received significantly more precipitation this season. This benefited the rainfed crop and supplemented the water supplies for the irrigated wheat. In this Landsat TM satellite scene of northern Rajasthan, the area planted to winter grains has noticeably increased. In addition, vegetative health and crop establishment also are much improved over last season. The linear feature running diagonally NE-SW in the scene is a major irrigation canal. Sangaria is a city in Rajasthan, near Punjab border.
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Rajasthan, India Wheat Area |
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| Imagery Locator Map |
Prospects
Wheat is grown during the winter season and is harvested mostly in April. USDA refers to the South Asia winter wheat crops planted during October-November 2001 as the 2002/03 wheat crop. Prospects for the current winter grain season in India appear very positive, but this will affect the grain stock storage dilemma which currently exists. Planted area for this crop increased from last year due to government support price and well timed rains in October that created excellent sowing conditions for the start of the season. USDA will release its initial estimates of 2002/03 grain production in May.
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India Wheat Production Intensity and Irrigate Analysis |
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India Wheat Production Intensity and Rainfed Analysis |
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India Wheat Production Intensity and Satellite Image Location |
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