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April 4, 2002
Because of relatively warm weather during February and March, winter-crop development is slightly ahead of last year in both Russia and Ukraine, and the spring sowing campaign has gotten off to an unusually early start. Planting in Ukraine is reportedly ahead of last year, and last year's spring sowing campaign was one of the most rapid in recent years. The early spring grains (chiefly barley, but also oats and wheat) are typically in the ground by mid-to-late April. Planting of the later spring grains (corn, millet, and buckwheat), is usually complete by mid-to-late May. In Russia, a reported 2 million hectares of spring grains had been planted by April 1, according to agricultural officials cited by the Reuters news agency. Although this is roughly double the area sown by the same date last year, spring planting in Russia is only 5-10 percent complete.
Winter grains have broken dormancy and resumed vegetative growth
in most major production regions of Ukraine and western Russia. (Click on
image at left to view comparison to last year.) Soil
moisture supplies were largely replenished over the winter, reversing persistent
fall dryness in southern Ukraine which hampered winter wheat establishment (see
February 26
assessment). Good early-season conditions are no guarantee of a good
harvest, as winter grain yield hinges largely on precipitation during April and
May, but they will compensate to some
degree for the unfavorable fall conditions. The early outlook for 2002/03
winter grain production in Ukraine is generally favorable, with sown area
reported at 8.6 million hectares, about the same as in 2001/02. Re-seeding
was required on about 0.7 million hectares, about the same as last year, but the
U.S. agricultural attache in Kiev reports that winterkill was more extensive
than last year.
Production prospects for winter grains in Russia are mixed. Sown area
increased 10 percent, to 16.2 million hectares, but the U.S. agricultural
attache in Moscow reports that winter crop conditions, in general, are not as
good as last year. Winter grains will likely benefit, however, from the
early resumption of vegetative growth in key southern growing regions. The attache reports also that fertilizer and chemical
supplies are higher than last year, though application rates will remain below
optimum levels.
Satellite imagery and vegetative indices from the first half of
March reflect the impact of the warm weather on spring planting and winter-crop
vigor. Note the heavy soil signature (gray color) in the AVHRR satellite
image, indicating widespread planting activity throughout southern
and central Ukraine and adjacent areas of southern Russia. (Click on image
at right to display larger view.) Satellite-derived vegetative indices show
the accelerated development of winter grains in northern Ukraine and southern
Russia. The indices also provide evidence of poor establishment in
southern Ukraine.
View current USDA estimates of 2001/02 grain production for Russia and Ukraine. The USDA will release its initial estimates of 2002/03 grain production in May.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.
