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April 1, 2002
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has stated that El Niño-conditions will probably develop in the central Pacific during March/May 2002, but that it will take several more months for a “mature El Niño” to develop. The relative severity of this possible event and its potential duration is unknown. Historically, Central America is warm and dry during June-August of an El Niño event. Some reduction in crop prospects is likely, should a mature El Niño develop. In the 1997/98 El Niño, above-normal heat and dryness became prevalent across Central America. Hurricane Mitch in October 1998 further worsened a deteriorating situation. Despite heavy injections of international aid, economies in the region have struggled to overcome several years of unfavorable weather and other DETRIMENTAL factors.
Background and Outlook
While NOAA has stated that El Niño conditions will likely develop, it is
unclear where the greatest effects of an El Niño will occur. If this
happens in Central
America, widespread dry conditions are likely.
Agricultural production was reduced by the 1997/98 El Niño, but it was Hurricane Mitch--coming at the end of the growing season--that truly devastated the region. Additionally,
there is always a degree of randomness in the net affects of a drought, due to
variables such as the locality traits, including terrain and elevation, etc., crop and
variety traits, and human intervention activities, including irrigation, crop subsidies,
and others.
In the event that a mature 2002 El Niño does affect Central America, it is probable that Honduras, Nicaragua, and neighboring territories would be prime candidates to experience measurable crop damage. PECAD data released during the Hurricane Mitch Recovery Project highlighted an area of dryness that evolved in 2000 and 2001, extending along a broad corridor roughly from the Caribbean coast of Honduras to the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. This “corridor of dryness” is a normal phenomena within the annual summer monsoon pattern (rainfall outside the corridor is generally heavier and more widespread than within), and an El Niño would likely limit precipitation in this region during the rainy season.
While the level of subsurface soil moisture during January
and February was acceptable in most of Central America, surface soil moisture
has generally been low since the beginning of 2002. Planting activities
could be delayed, giving rise to the possibility that late-planted fields would be flowering
in mid-summer’s high heat. This would likely result in sub- par yields. Conversely, the timely arrival of the annual monsoon in late-April to May would
permit crop stands to successfully establish themselves, and afford fields a
better opportunity to withstand potential summer dryness.
Producer Perspectives
The previous five years have taught Central American producers that timing and preparation are their best tools to meet new challenges that include:
inconsistent arrival of the monsoon season;
planting and harvesting windows that need to be adjusted each year due to special weather occurrences;
dwindling water supplies (wells, streams), and
transporting crops to a profitable marketplace.
The threat of a 2002 El Niño actually changes little for most Central American nations, as the concerns that marked the close of the 2001/02 growing season have continued into 2002/03. An El Niño will make a difficult situation worse, but absent an El Niño, producers and their various associations would still be:
Topical USDA/FAS Attaché reports
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200203/135683636.pdf
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200108/125681473.pdf
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200007/25698326.pdf
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/199912/25546526.pdf
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/199811/25372720.pdf
For more information, contact Ron White
with
the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202)
690-0137.
