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March 8, 2002
Afghanistan: Winter Grain
Conditions--
Continued Dryness Compounds
Food Shortage
Current Conditions Summary
Afghanistan is experiencing the fourth year of below-normal
precipitation in the winter grain production areas. Additionally,
above- normal
temperatures may be lowering already reduced irrigation water. Without additional precipitation, winter wheat production
shows little likelihood of rebounding from the record-low harvest in
2001.
Precipitation and Poor Growing Conditions
Afghanistan has experienced three years of significantly below-normal precipitation. The compounded effect of years of dry
conditions is severely reducing field crop production potential, as well as pastures
and grazing land. The current winter grain crop was planted under marginal conditions with
low soil moisture and reduced irrigation reserves. Since sowing,
precipitation has remained below normal. Cumulative precipitation in the major agricultural zone
for the time period of November 1 to
present (March 1 data) is only 35 percent of long-term normal, compared to 65 percent
of normal last year. However, good soil moisture from either precipitation
or irrigation during the critical grain
formation stage (March
and April), will determine the final output of both irrigated and
non-irrigated cropland.
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Cumulative Precipitation - Afghanistan Winter Grain Areas |
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Afghanistan Major Production Area |
Afghanistan Minor Production Area |
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Temperatures:
Average daily temperatures for the agricultural region during the same time
period are above normal and similar to the 1999 season in major producing areas,
and to 2000 in the minor areas. Last season above-normal temperatures in the higher
elevations of Afghanistan were associated with the reduced snow accumulation and
early melting of the snow pack, creating an ill-timed runoff that inadequately
recharged
irrigation supplies. Irrigation availability during the critical grain-fill
irrigations in the months of March and April is essential for good production.
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Average Temperature - Afghanistan Winter Grain Areas |
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Afghanistan Major Production Area |
Afghanistan Minor Production Area |
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Prospects:
Historically, wheat comprises 80 percent of Afghanistan's total grain production. Wheat is grown
during the winter season and is harvested from April to May. USDA refers
to the South Asia winter wheat crops planted during October-November 2001 as the
2002/03 wheat crop. For the
last two growing seasons yields have decreased sharply, a result of the compounding
effect of drought, reduced inputs, labor shortages, and irrigation infrastructure
deterioration. Prospects for the current winter grain season in
Afghanistan appear bleak, as many growing areas remain dry, resulting in poor
crop establishment and plant stress as the crop emerges from winter dormancy.
Planted area for this crop was likely reduced due to reduced
availability of seed, fertilizer, and fuel. USDA will release its initial
estimates of 2002/03 grain production in May.
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Afghanistan Analysis Map and Legend |
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