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March 4, 2002
Conditions for winter grains have
worsened after two months of very dry weather.
Conditions in Morocco, western
Algeria and central Algeria appear worst.
Summary
During the weekend of March 1st through the 3rd, light rains spread through Morocco (including southern areas) as a low pressure system moved across the region. This precipitation, and any more that may fall across northwest Africa, would greatly benefit winter wheat (currently at the jointing stage). Timely, occasional rain is needed in order to reverse the recent drying trend, as well as the long-term drought which has persisted for several years. The critical reproduction period for Northwest Africa's winter wheat, the time in which it demands substantial moisture, occurs during March and April. Given the current lack of sufficient soil moisture, occasional spring rains will be critical for the continued development of the crop.
January
During January, Morocco received less than 10 percent of normal precipitation. Across the border, western Algeria fared no better, receiving just trace amounts. The "wettest" areas were in eastern Algeria and adjacent areas of western Tunisia, where rainfall approached 50 percent of normal during January. Normal January precipitation in Marrakech, in southern Morocco, is 30 mm; in Casablanca, central Morocco, it is 70 mm; in Algiers, central Algeria, it is 69 mm; and in Tunis, Tunisia, it is 70 mm.
February
A dry weather pattern persisted over Northwest Africa through February, virtually identical to January. Tunisia received about 50 percent of normal precipitation for the month of February. Showers did fall in southern Morocco during the middle of the month, dampening soils and boosting February precipitation totals to two thirds of normal for the month. Northern and central Morocco received only one third of normal February precipitation. Western Algeria received 25 percent of its normal February precipitation, while central Algeria received 75 percent and eastern Algeria was actually slightly above average for the month. Normal February precipitation in Marrakech, southern Morocco is 36 mm, in Casablanca, central Morocco it is 54 mm, in Algiers, central Algeria it is 74 mm, and in Tunis, Tunisia it is 58 mm.
Regional Summary
All of Morocco has had very little rainfall since the heavy, late-arriving planting rains ended around January 1st. At the start of January all areas in Morocco were at average precipitation levels for the season; however rainfall soon severely declined. Western Algeria started the season well, and when rains ended at the start of January, precipitation to date was above average. Since then, however, it has fallen well below average. Reservoir levels may be higher in Western Algeria, as a deluge in November gave the area improved soil moisture at the start of the growing season. However, the severity of the storm likely prohibited soils from retaining and storing much moisture. Perhaps the most serious problem area is Central Algeria. Central Algeria's total precipitation has been below average since the start of the season back in November, and it has increased very little since. Precipitation in central Algeria is averaging only 100 mm (4 inches) for the season, when normally it should be at 350 mm (14 inches) by March 1st. The eastern areas of Northwest Africa including Tunisia, but especially eastern Algeria, have seen re-occurring showers during the season. While these areas remain below average in precipitation, the marginal showers have occasionally moistened the eastern region, benefiting the vegetative winter crops.
Maps showing conditions affecting growing regions
Percent of normal rainfall for current
winter grains season (November - February 2002)
Percent soil moisture in Northwest Africa
on 27 February 2002
Subsoil
moisture in Northwest Africa on 27 February 2002
Growing Regions: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
Regional rainfall totals for the growing season
Northern Morocco, Central
Morocco, Southern Morocco
Western
Algeria, Central Algeria,
Eastern Algeria
Tunisia
