February 8, 2002

Central Asia Wheat:  2001/02 Output and 2002/03 Prospects

Summary  
Drought has prevailed in Central Asia for the past three crop seasons, but estimated total regional wheat production has not dropped significantly.  Combined 2001/02 wheat production for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan is estimated at 6.1 million tons, compared to 6.0 million in 2000/01, and 6.2 million in 1999/2000.  Early winter grain prospects for 2002/03 are relatively good.  Sown area will likely remain steady for the two biggest producers, and winter precipitation has increased soil-moisture reserves. 

Grain Production Increasingly Important
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan make up the Central Asia region of the former Soviet Union (FSU).  In earlier times, these countries were considered the cotton zone of the Soviet Union, and cotton remains an important commodity in the region, but grain production has become increasingly important since the republics gained independence in 1991and set grain self-sufficiency as a national priority.  The area sown to cotton has decreased over the past ten years, while that of winter wheat--the chief grain crop--has doubled. 

Most of the grain area, and virtually all of the cotton area, is irrigated, with snowmelt from the Tien Shan, Alay, and Pamir mountains providing about 80 percent of the region's irrigation water.  Above-normal precipitation during the past winter has helped to reverse the impact of three years of persistent dryness.  Winter grains benefited from increased topsoil moisture in the valleys where the crops are grown, and sorely depleted irrigation reserves in the mountains were partially replenished.  

Marginal Wheat Area Changes Likely in 2002/03, But Better Growing Conditions
Wheat production in Uzbekistan for 2001/02  is estimated at 3.4 million tons, compared to 3.6 million in 2000/01, and 3.7 million in 1999/2000.  Uzbekistan provides an excellent example of the shift in agricultural land use in Central Asia.  Since 1987, Uzbekistan cotton area declined from 2.1 million hectares to an estimated 1.4 million in 2001/02, while wheat area increased from 0.5 to 1.2 million hectares.  Wheat area dropped by 15 percent in 2000/01 to 1.2 million hectares, and remained at that level for 2001/02, but the reduction was due to removing 150,000 hectares of marginal, non-irrigated land from production, rather than to drought.  Preliminary official statistics indicate that sown area of 2002/03 Uzbekistan winter grains, over 90 percent of which is winter wheat, will remain stable at roughly 1.2 million hectares.  Conditions have been beneficial for winter crops, with above-normal precipitation in recent months. 

In 2001/02, Kyrgyzstan gathered a record grain crop estimated at 1.9 million tons (compared to 1.5 million in 2000/01), including 1.3 (1.0) million tons of wheat.  Kyrgyzstan has essentially achieved self-sufficiency in wheat production, with output matching domestic consumption.  As in Uzbekistan, 2002/03 winter grain prospects are generally favorable.  Planting was completed sooner than in the two previous seasons, and establishment conditions were better.  Final Kyrgyz data are not yet available, but sown area is not likely to decrease from last year. 

The outlook for winter grains in Turkmenistan is more difficult to assess.  Weather for crop establishment was favorable, but forecasting area is difficult due in part to the notorious unreliability of official data.  For example, Turkmenistan agricultural officials have reported that 2001/02 grain production reached or surpassed 2.0 million tons, but other observers suggest that actual output is substantially lower than official harvest data indicate.  The USDA estimates 2001/02 total grain production at 1.3 million tons, including 1.2 million wheat (with both figures matching 2000/01 output).  Despite the improved moisture conditions, 2002/03 grain production will continue to be hampered by the same constraints that producers have struggled with in recent years:  a limited amount of arable land, chronic infrastructure problems (including an outdated and crumbling irrigation system), and a lack of financial incentives. 

Officials in Tajikistan reported that roughly one-half of the country's grain area was significantly affected by persistent drought.  The USDA estimates that wheat production (which comprises roughly 80 percent of total grain output) dropped to 0.23 million tons in 2001/02, against 0.26 million in 2000/01 and 0.37 million in 1999/00.  The slide in production was due largely to weather-related yield reduction; sown area remained relatively stable at 0.3 million hectares. 

(View assessment of Afghanistan winter grain conditions, and current USDA estimates of  grain production for Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.  Estimates for 2002/03 will be released in May 2002.)

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.

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