|
|
|
|
|
|
February 12, 2002
Chinese farmers cut winter wheat plantings for the 2002/03 winter wheat crop, which was planted in September/October 2001, and will be harvested in June 2002. Most of the crop is grown in eastern China, and just 5 provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu) account for more than 70 percent of China's total wheat output. According to China's Ministry of Agriculture, farmers cut winter wheat area for 2002/03 in response to dry planting conditions, low domestic wheat prices, and attractive alternative crops. Initial reports put the reduction at less than 1 percent, but later government reports indicated that area may have dropped by nearly 4 percent from last year. Spring wheat area is also expected to continue its downward trend in 2002/03.
The weather was very dry at planting, but light showers in November and widespread rain/snow in December (as well as supplemental irrigation) provided adequate moisture in most areas for germination. Precipitation in January and February has been very light, and seasonal rainfall is below normal over eastern China, especially in Henan and Shandong, the top two wheat-producing provinces. In contrast, precipitation has been close to normal this season in the Yangtze River Valley and Sichuan Province, where rapeseed is also an important winter crop.
China - Rainfall Graphs
Except for a cold spell in mid-December, it has been a mild winter. Temperatures have averaged 1 to 5 degrees C. above normal since the start of the year, with highs occasionally reaching into the 'teens on the North China Plain. The relatively warm weather has melted the protective snow cover and reduced the hardiness of dormant winter crops, increasing their vulnerability to winterkill should frigid weather occur.
Surface soil moisture supplies are very short to non-existent across the winter wheat region as a result of below-normal precipitation since mid-December and mild temperatures, and the situation is not likely to change until the arrival of spring rains in April or May. Sub-surface soil moisture levels are fair to good in central and southern China but have been declining alarmingly in the Yellow River basin following several years of poor rainfall in the region.
Although current conditions are drier than normal, the yield impact is minor because the winter wheat crop is still dormant and its moisture needs are low. The crop typically comes out of dormancy in March, at which time the demand for moisture will increase significantly. The greatest need for rainfall and supplemental irrigation will be from mid-April through the first week of May, when most of the crop will be at the drought-sensitive heading/flowering stage.
In 2001/02, China produced an estimated 94.0 million tons of wheat from 25.2 million hectares. The resultant yield of 3.73 dropped below the 5-year average due to a damaging spring drought on the North China Plain. USDA will make its first estimate for China's 2002/03 wheat area and production in May.
Previous Report - November 2001
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
|
|
 |
|
| | Contact PECAD | FAS Home | USDA | | |
