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January 18, 2002
Winter
Grains in Northwest Africa:
Late-Arriving
Rains Allow Planting in Morocco;
Drying
Trend Decreases Soil Moisture in Algeria and Tunisia
Current conditions for winter grains are generally good across Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, as all areas have received some autumn rains, encouraging sowing and emergence. At present however, crops in Algeria (particularly the central coastal area) and Tunisia would greatly benefit from soaking rains. Soil moisture levels have dropped considerably in the last two months as a drying trend has taken place. The optimal time for winter wheat and barley planting in North Africa occurs during mid-November through Mid-December, typically following the fall rains. Due to the great uncertainty of African rainfall and the lack of planting automation, most planting does not begin until after the first significant rains arrive, even if they arrive late. Fields can be sown into mid-January if the autumn rains are delayed, as was the case in Morocco this year.
Delayed Start in Morocco
After the delayed arrival of fall moisture, all areas of Morocco received three consecutive weeks of soaking rains, starting on December 17th. The boost in rainfall pushed seasonal (Sept - January) totals up to normal levels, but well over half of the 3-month precipitation total occurred in just three weeks. The rain events were followed by a beneficial drying trend in early January. The recent weather conditions should have allowed farmers opportunity for late planting across the country, particularly in the southern and central regions, which have experienced an extended drought for the last several years. The rainfall will also help with emergence and early plant growth on any early-planted fields and will dramatically improve pasture conditions. FAS-Rabat estimates similar planted area to last year, with planting operations lasting until mid-January. Winter temperatures in Morocco have been above normal and should help minimize the adverse effects of the late planting.
Storm Hammers Coastal Algeria and Tunisia, but Benefits Crop Areas
Algeria and Tunisia had a more timely start to their planting season as showers began in November. Western Algeria and adjacent regions of northeast Morocco are above average in total precipitation this season, owing to a fierce storm that hammered the coast in November. While delivering beneficially widespread rain, it also had severe and tragic implications in localized coastal areas, particularly flash floods and mudslides in the capital city of Algiers. This one storm is responsible for over half of the regions' precipitation, and without it totals would run from average to slightly below average for the season. Occasional showers supplied central Algeria with frequent moisture, but dry weather has recently developed, dropping moisture levels below average. Rain and showers in eastern Algeria throughout the season has brought rainfall totals to average levels. Similarly, Tunisia has also benefited from precipitation early in the season, but this slowed recently, resulting in cumulative seasonal rainfall slightly below average (similar pattern to last season). Additional rainfall would be welcomed in both Algeria and Tunisia to further promote plant development and to replenish depleted moisture reserves.
After a successful planting rain event in Northwest Africa, timely rainfall throughout the growing season is the most critical factor for a good crop season. Therefore, with the conclusion of adequate and widespread planting rains, occasional rains throughout the season will determine yield levels. However, sustaining moisture levels in this region from Mid-January through April is a big uncertainty, and has occasionally been the undoing of crops that got off to a good start during a the wet winter season.
Seasonal
Precipitation Totals in the Agricultural Regions of Northwest
Africa:
Morocco: Northern Region, Central Region, Southern Region
Algeria: Western Region, Central Region, Eastern Region
Tunisia: All Areas
Current Year vs. Last Year
Precipitation Comparisons:
Northern Morocco, Central Morocco
Western Algeria, Central Algeria, Eastern Algeria
Above data based on World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
station observations.
Maps of Agricultural Regions:
Morocco,
Algeria,
Tunisia
Soil Moisture Conditions Map for Northwest Africa (January 14):
Seasonal Precipitation Total for Northwest Africa
Current Weather in Northwest Africa
