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October 2002 Edition
Australia’s drought-decimated wheat crop is forecast at just 13 million tons, the lowest level since 1994/95. Extremely tight exportable supplies will restrict exports to just 8 million tons, less than half of last year’s export level and the second lowest in 24 years, and force the Australian Wheat Board to ration supplies to its most important markets as was the case under similar circumstances in 1994/95. Consequently, competing suppliers will pick up sales to fill the void.
Large crops and relatively low prices make EU and FSU (mainly Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakstan) supplies much more competitive in North Africa and the Middle East. Ample Indian supplies, although generally considered to be of lower quality than Australian wheat, are extremely price competitive and will further flood Southeast Asian markets. U.S. exports are also expected to benefit somewhat from Australia’s dramatically reduced crop.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
International Market Analysis:
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed
Contact List
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