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September 2002 Edition
Canada’s
Falling Exportable Supplies
Impact Global Trade Patterns
Canada’s
worst harvest since the early 1970’s is forcing dramatic changes in
the country’s traditional role as a major wheat and barley exporter,
while also providing new opportunities for other suppliers. At the same
time, strong feed demand is driving imports of U.S. corn to a record 4.5
million tons.
Canada’s reduced presence in the wheat export market this year is opening high-quality markets to other suppliers. For example, U.S. commitments of hard wheats to Latin America have nearly doubled over last year. This region typically accounts for nearly one-third of Canada’s exports. Similarly, Black Sea wheat is being sold to Brazil, Iran, and North Africa as a partial replacement of Canadian milling wheat.
Canadian
barley exports are expected to be just half of last year’s level and
the lowest since 1968/69. With Australia also having a small crop, China
will have to purchase its malting barley from other sources. The EU
could also take advantage of Canada’s short supply, but until domestic
prices fall or the Commission approves export subsidies, the EU can’t
compete with low-priced Ukrainian or Russian feed barley.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs:
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed
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