Cotton: World Markets and Trade (June 2002)

June 2002 Edition:

MY 2001/02 Production Forecast Continues Up, Consumption Outlook Continues to Recover

Chart showing MY 2001/02 Production Forecast Continues Up, Consumption Outlook Continues to Recover

The changes in the June forecast, the twelfth forecast for the 2001/02 marketing year, can be summarized as increasing production and uncertainty about consumption. Production forecasts rose as evidence of favorable crop conditions raised yield estimates above the historical averages that were assumed early in the season. Record yields are expected in China, while in Turkey, Brazil, and Greece, yields are at near record levels. Australia and many Franc Zone African countries are experiencing the highest yields in ten years, while the United States and Egypt are seeing 5-year highs, yields in India and Pakistan are slightly above 5-year averages. Some of the yield effect on the production forecast was offset by decreases in the area forecasts in Southern Hemisphere countries, as reaction to low prices was stronger than first anticipated.

Overall world economic growth and low cotton prices are major factors in the world consumption estimate. The early forecasts were based on weakening economic indicators. The events of September 11th added downward pressure to the global economic situation and the forecast for consumption. Recent months have seen unexpected recovery in mill demand.

Despite the recent recovery in the consumption forecast, the difference between production and consumption has remained at roughly 5 million bales, up from the initial estimate of 2 million bales forecast last summer. This large gap between production and consumption has maintained the downward pressure on cotton prices.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf) or downloaded as Lotus 1-2-3 ® spreadsheets (.wk3).

Tables

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1995/96-2001/2002 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1995/96-2001/2002 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 3: FY 99 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf .csv}
Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2000/2001-2001/2002 {.pdf}
Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2001/2002 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2001/2002 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2000/2001 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2000/2001 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf, .wk3}
Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf .csv}
Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .csv}
Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .csv}
Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf, .csv}
Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2001/2002 {.pdf, .csv}
Table 13:Summary of Changes1999/2000‑2001/02 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

	Most statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat and Lotus version 3 format. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.
Download the trade tables in Lotus 123 version 3 format. Please note that some versions of Netscape Navigator will change the filename extension; if this happens, you MUST rename the file to .wk3 to access it.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005