Contents |
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Assumptions and Conventions |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Preface |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Chapter I
198k pdf file |
Global Economic Prospects and Policy
Considerations |
The Asian Crisis |
| Advanced Economies |
| Developing Countries |
| Countries in Transition |
| Appendix: Countdown to
EMU--Progress Toward |
| | Convergence and Challenges
Remaining |
| Boxes |
| 1. | The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial
Markets |
| 2. | Moral Hazard and IMF Lending |
| 3. | International Monetary System:
Measures to Reduce the Risk of Crises |
| Table |
| 1. | European Union: Convergence
Indicators |
| Figures |
| 1. | World Output and Inflation |
| 2. | Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the
Prospective Euro Area |
| 3. | European Union: Average Inflation and
General Government Balance |
| 4. | European Union: General Government
Budget Positions |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Chapter II
314k pdf file |
Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis |
| and Other Issues in the Current
Conjuncture |
| The Global Growth Outlook |
| Prospects for Global Inflation (or
Deflation) |
| Implications of Recent Currency
Realignments for |
| | Countries' International
Competitiveness |
| Prospects for Global Flows of Funds and
Current |
| | Account Balances |
| Outlook for Japan |
| Emerging Market Countries: Selected
Issues |
| Box |
| 4. | Policy Assumptions Underlying the
Projections for Selected Advanced Economies |
| Tables |
| 2. | Overview of the World Economic
Outlook Projections |
| 3. | Advanced Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer |
| | Prices, and Unemployment Rates |
| 4. | Major Industrial Countries: General
Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
| 5. | Selected Developing Countries: Real
GDP and Consumer Prices |
| 6. | Countries in Transition: Real GDP and
Consumer Prices |
| 7. | Recent Exchange Rate Movements on
Bilateral |
| | and Multilateral Bases |
| 8. | Developing Countries, Countries in
Transition, |
| | and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net
Capital Flows |
| 9. | Gross Private Financing to Emerging
Market Economies |
| 10. | Selected Economies: Current
Account
Positions |
| 11. | Selected Latin American Economies:
Macroeconomic Indicators |
| 12. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected
Economic Indicators |
| Figures |
| 5. | Selected Asian Economies: Bilateral
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Equity Prices |
| 6. | Major Industrial Countries: Output
Gaps |
| 7. | Major Industrial Countries: Indices of
Monetary Conditions |
| 8. | Selected European Union Countries
and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence |
| 9. | Selected European Countries: Real
Total Domestic Demand |
| 10. | Major Industrial Countries: Nominal
Interest Rates |
| 11. | Selected Advanced Economies:
Inflation |
| 12. | Advanced Economies: Inflation and
Commodity Prices |
| 13. | Major Industrial Countries: Effective
Exchange Rates |
| 14. | Japanese Banking Sector: Selected
Indicators |
| 15. | ASEAN-4 plus Korea: Aggregate
Trade Balance |
| 16. | Paths of Output Gaps in Cases of
Financial Sector Shocks |
| 17. | Selected Latin American Countries:
Short-Term Interest Rates and Exchange Rates |
| 18. | Egypt: Basic Macroeconomic
Data |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Chapter III
182k pdf file |
The Business Cycle, International Linkages, |
| and Exchange Rates |
| Business Cycles |
| The Relationship Between Business
Cycles and |
| | Exchange Rates |
| Implications for Policy and
Surveillance |
| Box |
| 5. | Evaluating Exchange Rates |
| Table |
| 13. | Major Industrial Countries: Business
Cycle Indicators |
| Figures |
| 19. | Major Industrial Countries: Output
Gaps |
| 20. | Major Industrial Countries:
Unemployment, Inflation, and Output Gaps |
| 21. | Business Cycles and Output
Gaps |
| 22. | Three Major Industrial Countries:
Real Effective Exchange Rates and Selected Relative Cyclical Variables |
| 23. | Selected Major Industrial Countries:
Temporary Dollar Appreciation Scenario |
| 24. | Three Major Industrial Countries:
Variability in Effective Exchange Rates |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Chapter IV
215k pdf file |
Financial Crises:
Characteristics and Indicators of |
| Vulnerability |
| Types of Crises |
| Identifying Crises |
| Origins of Currency and Banking
Crises |
| Currency Crises and Contagion |
| Indicators of Vulnerability |
| Stylized Behavior of Macroeconomic
Variables Before |
| | and After Crises |
| Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability
to Currency Crises |
| Boxes |
| 6. | Resolving Banking Sector
Problems |
| 7. | Effective Banking Prudential
Regulations and Requirements |
| 8. | The Current Account and
External Sustainability |
| Tables |
| 14. | Selected Crises: Costs of
Restructuring Financial |
| | Sectors and Nonperforming Loans |
| 15. | Costs of Crises in Lost Output
Relative to Trend |
| 16. | Significance of Early Warning
Indicators of Vulnerability to Currency Crises |
| Figures |
| 25. | Incidence of Currency and Banking
Crises |
| 26. | Macroeconomic Characteristics of
Currency Crises |
| 27. | Macroeconomic Characteristics of
Banking Crises |
| 28. | Asian Currency Crisis: Indicators of
Vulnerability |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Chapter V
165k pdf file |
Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in |
| Transition |
| From Stabilization to Sustainability |
| Transition and Government
Revenue |
| Transition and Government
Expenditure |
| Intergovernmental Fiscal
Relations |
| Legal Reform, Transparency, and
Accountability |
| Boxes |
| 9. | Russia's Fiscal Challenges |
| 10. | Pension Reform in Countries in
Transition |
| Tables |
| 17. | Countries in Transition: General
Government Balance |
| 18. | Countries in Transition: General
Government Revenue |
| 19. | Countries in Transition: General
Government Expenditure |
| 20. | Selected Countries in Transition:
Scenarios for Fiscal Sustainability |
| 21. | Selected Countries in Transition: Main
Items in the |
| | General Government Revenue Structure,
1996 |
| 22. | Selected Countries in Transition:
Registered Unemployment |
| 23. | Selected Countries in Transition:
Estimated Poverty |
| | Headcount and Poverty Deficit, in
1993–95 |
| 24. | Selected Countries in Transition: Main
Items |
| | in the General Government Expenditure
Structure, 1996 |
| 25. | Selected Countries in Transition: Life
Expectancy at Birth |
| 26. | Selected Countries in Transition:
Shares of Education |
| | and Health in Total Employment |
| Box 9. Russian Federation: Summary
Operations of the General Government |
| Box 10. Public Pension Systems in
Countries in Transition |
| Box 10. Countries in Transition: Public
Pension Expenditure, 1993 and 1996 |
| Figures |
| 29. | Countries in Transition: General
Government Revenue and Expenditure, 1997 |
| 30. | Countries in Transition: Government
Revenue, 1997 |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Annexes
99k pdf file |
I. | Transparency in Government
Operations |
| Why Fiscal Transparency? |
| | Institutions and Behavior |
| | Government Accounts |
| | Indicators and Projections |
| | Overall Trends and Priorities |
| | Role of the IMF in Promoting Fiscal
Transparency |
| II. | Recent Developments in
Primary Commodity Markets |
| | Effects of the Asian Crisis |
| | Effects of Weather |
| | Developments in Specific Markets |
| | Near-Term Outlook |
| Table |
| 27. | Price Declines for Individual
Commodities and Countries Most Affected in Foreign Exchange Earnings |
| Figures |
| 31. | Selected Asian Countries' Shares in
World Consumption of Primary Commodities |
| 32. | Commercial Stocks of Petroleum in
OECD Countries |
| 33. | Real Commodity Prices and World
Output |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Statistical Appendix
380k pdf file |
Assumptions |
Data and Conventions |
Classification of Countries |
| List of Tables |
| | Output (Tables A1–A7) |
| | Inflation (Tables A8–A13) |
| | Financial Policies (Tables
A14–A21) |
| | Foreign Trade (Tables
A22–A26) |
| | Current Account Transactions (Tables
A27–A32) |
| | Balance of Payments and External
Financing |
| (Tables
A33–A37) |
| | External Debt and Debt Service (Tables
A38–A43) |
| | Flow of Funds (Table A44) |
| | Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables
A45–A46) |
![](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090116024331im_/http://www.imf.org/external/gifs/space.gif) |
Selected
Topics
33k pdf file |
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98 |