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A Brief History of the
Southeast River Forecast Center
(Revised, December, 2000)
The Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) was established in
1955 for the purpose of providing
flood and low-flow river forecasts for the southeastern United
States. The area of forecast
responsibility for the SERFC was designated to include rivers
that drain into the Atlantic Ocean
along the coasts of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and
Florida as well as the rivers that
drain into the Gulf of Mexico from Mobile Bay to the southernmost
tip of Florida.
The original office of the SERFC was collocated with the
Weather Bureau Airport Station at the city
airport in Augusta, Georgia. In 1967 the office was moved to
Atlanta, Ga to become collocated with
the Weather Bureau office at the Atlanta International Airport.
Because space was unavailable at
the airport, the office was temporarily housed at three different
downtown locations
(Peachtree-Baker Building, then, 1401 Peachtree Street, and then,
1365 Peachtree Street) before
finally being collocated with the Weather Service Forecast Office
(WSFO) in 1976 at 1001
International Boulevard, Hapeville, GA. The collocated office was
relocated to temporary quarters
at 3420 Norman Berry Drive, Hapeville, GA on February 28, 1992
after Delta Airlines bought the
building on International Boulevard and needed the entire
building for their own use. On April 19,
1994, the collocated offices moved to Peachtree City, GA
Between 1955 and 1972 the SERFC disseminated river forecasts
through nine Weather Bureau
offices that were designated River District Offices (RDOs), whose
areas of hydrologic responsibility
were delineated by river basin boundaries rather than state
lines. The RDOs were Mobile, AL;
Montgomery, AL; Pensacola, FL; Tampa, FL; Atlanta, GA; Augusta,
GA; Macon, GA; Charleston,
SC; and Columbia, SC. Raleigh-Durham Weather Bureau office was
designated an RDO, but
produced its own river forecasts until 1972. In 1972, the Weather
Service adopted the state WSFO
concept. River forecasts were then disseminated through six WSFOs
as follows: Birmingham, AL;
Miami, FL; Atlanta, GA; Jackson, MS; Columbia, SC and
Raleigh-Durham, NC. This "area
management" concept persisted until September 30, 1996. At
the present time, there are 18 Weather
Forecast Offices in the SERFC area and each of them has
hydrologic responsibility for the area that
they cover.
Before the advent of the computer age, river forecasts issued
by the SERFC were prepared by hand
with procedures utilizing maps, graphs, tables, charts, etc.
Computer programming was begun in
the mid-1960s to produce software that would reduce the labor
intensive work involved in managing
the soil moisture accounting system that was being used in the
SERFC. When the office moved to
Atlanta in 1967, an in-house IBM 1130 (16K) computer was
obtained, and over the next few years
the preparation of forecasts gradually became computerized. In
1975, the SERFC was linked to the
IBM 360/195 systems of the NOAA Central Computer Facility in
Suitland, MD, and preliminary
calibration work was begun on the National Weather Service River
Forecast System (NWSRFS).
In late 1982, a total commitment was made to adopt the more
sophisticated NWSRFS as SERFC's
primary hydrologic model and in 1986 the change over was
completed, leaving the old model behind.
Later, the IBM 360s were replaced by NAS 9000s, where the NWSRFS
resided until December,
1996. In the summer of 1996, fast, high capacity computer
workstations were placed in the RFC and
within a few months, all operational products were being
generated "in-house'. Although the
forecasts are calculated by computer, they still require thorough
analysis by professional hydrologists
for possible adjustment. Insufficient data and/or imperfections
in the hydrologic model often require
revisions of the computer forecast.
In addition to having responsibility for the preparation of
river forecasts for public dissemination
through WSFOs, the SERFC provides forecasts directly to, and
works closely with, other federal,
state, and private agencies that have an interest in water
resources. Open lines of communications
with the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Corps of Engineers, private
power companies, state water
management agencies, and other water interests have been
cultivated since SERFC began operations.
Since 1985, the SERFC has become increasingly involved in aspects
of water resources other than
short term river forecasts. SERFC was the first RFC to calibrate
and use the Extended Streamflow
Prediction (ESP) model in a non-snowmelt area. Drought outlooks
and seasonal probabilistic
predictions are now being provided on a scheduled basis to assist
responsible agencies in the
management of water resources.
Attention was focused on interagency hydrometeorological data
exchange in 1985 when SERFC was
equipped with a minicomputer that was dedicated to the task of
collecting, storing, and
disseminating a wide range of data to interested agencies. .
Cooperating agencies began to provide
data for and receive data from the DATACOL files which were
maintained in that computer system.
In 1993, the minicomputer with its DATACOL software, was replaced
by smaller, high-speed
micro-computers and DATACOL was replaced by a new and improved
software load called
Hydromet. The Corps of Engineers cooperated in the program by
providing a second identical
system to back-up the primary system.
The development and deployment of the WSR-88D radar was a
notable event in the history of the
NWS, and there was no exception at SERFC. The entire professional
staff attended the four-week
training course at Norman, OK in 1992 to learn to use the new
radar and interpret its output. The
Principal User Processor (PUP) arrived in January 1993. Full use
of the new system's capabilities
was not attained until new computer work stations were made
available at a future date.
Initially, the SERFC staff consisted of a hydrologist in
charge, a principal assistant, two
hydrologists, and a secretary. As the RFC became responsible for
more and more river basins, staff
was added, reaching a high of eight hydrologists and a secretary
in the 1970s. One hydrologist
position was lost to austerity and the secretary position was
converted to hydrologic technician in
the early 1980s. The staff then consisted of a hydrologist in
charge, a deputy hydrologist in charge,
five hydrologists and a hydrologic technician until late 1993
when the DHIC position was abolished
in favor of the new Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH)
position. The Senior
Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support (HAS) position was added
in January, 1994. Two HAS
forecasters were added in the summer of 1994. Four more
hydrologic forecaster positions were
added in 1996 for a total of 15 SERFC staff members.
Late in 1997, HIC Dave Helms retired after over 30 years of Federal Government
service. Then John Feldt, was selected as HIC. John arrived with around 20 years of Federal
service and was
recently MIC in Des Moines, Iowa. John arrived just as the El Nino floods began,
which lasted through
the Spring of 1998.
In 1998, the NWS Modernization was nearing completion with the delivery of the
Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The SERFC received 7
workstations
which became operational that year.
In 1999, with the new forecasting tools available, the HAS function began using
its own
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) in the river models. X-sets was also implemented
making it easier for the hydrologic forecaster to compose and send out a river
forecast. The
addition of this tool allowed the SERFC to begin issuing river forecasts out 5
days in 6 hour increments.
Also, in 1999, the SERFC began to publish hydrographs and river condition
maps on the web.
In September of 1999, when the SERFC's modernization was complete, the SERFC was
given
a "final exam" by mother nature when a near category 5 hurricane
threatened the Southeast U.S.
As Hurricane Floyd raked through the Bahamas, a massive amount of rainfall began
to fall in the
Carolinas. With an accurate QPF forecast produced by the SERFC in cooperation
with the
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and several local Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs),
the hydrologic forecasters at the SERFC were able to provide an accurate, record
flooding, forecast
to the public, local WFOs and Emergency Management Community days in advance of
landfall.
Our grade was a U.S. Department of Commerce Gold Medal presented in September,
2000 in
Washington.
For 2000, the SERFC began its work on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Services (AHPS).
The SERFC selected Albany, GA as the prototype site. A large amount of work was
also being done
with the calibration of river basins, Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP), web
page improvements,
and new GIS products which include the new Graphical Hydrometeorological
Discussion.
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