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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151616
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 15 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 07N86W TO 05N100W TO 07N120W TO 09N136W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N OF AXIS E OF 88W.
...DISCUSSION...
NARROW LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 137W SUPPORTS
STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT TO CROSS 140W INTO E PAC. WELL ANCHORED
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 126W HOLDS TO ITS POSITION
SHIFTING TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NE. MODERATE DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 135W-140W.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXISTING GALE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO STORM
WITHIN 24 HRS AS SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS CROSSES THE
ISTHMUS FROM GULF OF MEXICO. EVENT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND END
OF FORECAST PERIOD.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE FRI AS ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE
OCCASIONAL GUST TO GALE FORCE COULD OCCUR AS DEEPENING LOW PRES
OVER COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING NE TRADE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN.
LARGE LONG PERIOD...16-20 SECONDS...NW SWELLS ENTERING E PAC
FROM LOW PRES 980 MB WELL N OF FORECAST WATERS. S WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AFFECT EXTREME NW CORNER OF
BASIN...BUT SWELL REACH N OF 08N W OF 130W BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 130W-135W S OF 15N PRODUCING SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND MODERATE NE TRADES AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCES CONVECTION.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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