Tropical Depression MARIE Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008

MARIE HAS LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME
INTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-OCCUR WITHIN THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER SINCE THE
SYSTEM LACKS PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT CAN NO
LONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ADVISORIES ARE BEING
TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.

A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM AROUND 1400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE 25 TO 30 KT.  ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER SPINDOWN OF THE
CYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25
KT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE REMAINING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST OR 280/3.  THE TRACK MODELS
INSIST ON A CYCLONICALLY LOOPING MOTION WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF
NORBERT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN
THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 18.9N 123.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH