Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED TO THE POINT THAT SAB DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY AT 1800 UTC.  AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. 
THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MORE WESTWARD
COMPONENT TO THE SHORT TERM MOTION NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS FULLY DECOUPLED.  FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW BAM MOST
CLOSELY...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 108.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 109.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN