Tropical Storm OMAR Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 181433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

OMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS
OVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA
FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW .

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT
OMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/1500Z 33.4N  50.7W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 34.7N  48.9W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 36.5N  46.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 37.5N  43.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 39.0N  38.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 41.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA