FZAK80 PAFC 142308 ICEAFC SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 210 PM AKST WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009 FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 19 JANUARY 2009 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. SYNOPSIS...A LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY AND MOVE UP THE ALASKA WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AND NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. -ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA- -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON- PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- ICE COVERED. -BERING SEA- PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND- PKZ185-010300-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS- PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT- PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF- PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN- THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR FALSE PASS ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA TO 56.5N 160.6W TO 56.9N 162W TO 56.5N 163.7W TO 56.5N 167.7W TO 56.6N 169.1W TO 57N 171W TO 58.4N 173.5W TO 59.4N 175.9W TO 60.7N 180 TO 61.4N 177.2E TO 60.3N 173.4E AND CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE OFTEN IN STRIPS. 4 TO 6 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN PORT MOLLER. 3 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN IZEMBEK LAGOON AND THE BERING SIDE OF FALSE PASS. 3 TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES NEAR COLD BAY. DETAILED ICE EDGE LOCATION 167W TO 180. 167W 56.4N 168W 56.6N 169W 56.6N 170W 56.8N 171W 57.0N 172W 57.8N 173W 58.2N 174W 58.7N 175W 59.1N 176W 59.4N 177W 59.8N 178W 60.0N 179W 60.4N 180 60.7N FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...WEST OF 175W...CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE THE ICE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 NM EACH DAY. THE NET ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 NM THROUGH MONDAY. ICE EDGE BETWEEN 175W AND 167W...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND MAKE THE WINDS ALONG THE ICE EDGE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 NM EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 NM WITH MOST OF THE CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY LATE FRIDAY. FOR WATERS EAST OF 167W...INCLUDING BRISTOL BAY...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL COMPACT MUCH OF THE ICE TOWARD NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY. LIGHTER AND COLDER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW ICE TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY FOR LITTLE NET CHANGE IN ICE EDGE POSITION. PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY- PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY- PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS- COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...LOW. NO NEW DATA SINCE FRIDAY. ICE OBSERVATIONS FROM COOK INLET WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. NORTH OF THE FORELANDS 5 TO 10 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE IN BRASH CONDITIONS IS MOVING WITH THE TIDES. THE UPPER ENDS OF KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS ARE FROZEN. SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS STRIPS OF YOUNG AND NEW ICE IN CONCENTRATIONS OF 4 TO 10 TENTHS EXTEND TO ABOUT 20 NM SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 3 TO 8 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KACHEMAK BAY AND ALONG THE SPIT. 5 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KAMISHAK BAY AND THE BAYS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TO THE MAIN PACK. COOK INLET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ICE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SHORELINE. OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THE ICE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. PLEASE REMEMBER ICE IN COOK INLET VARIES GREATLY WITH THE TIDES. KCOLE 2009 $$