FXUS64 KHGX 201158
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
555 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOT PLANNING ON TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST ATTM. ANOTHER
DRY DAY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT.
BUT WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN THE MAIN
FCST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 
OTHERWISE THE FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS DRY AIRMASS OF LATE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODIFY WEDS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DO SHOW SOME
SWLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT FRI/EARLY SAT. NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF
SEEING MUCH MORE THAN THE 10%-20% POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS ATTM
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE RETURN. OVERRUNNING TYPE CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEEP-
ENING AOA THE CALI BAJA BEGINS TO SLOWLY NUDGE EAST AND THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SW. 
41
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC FOR THE 0-60NM WATERS TODAY AS WINDS OFFSHORE 
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING 
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SETX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS 
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY 
SHOULD REACH SCEC. 
45
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. VERY POOR RECOVERY THIS MORNING AND WITH 
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS EXPECT THAT WINDS SHOULD COME UP QUICKLY WITH 
HEATING. COOLER AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT FURTHER WITH DRY AIR MIXING 
DOWN FROM ALOFT. WINDS BY NOON SHOULD AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. 
EXPECT A RAPID DROP IN WINDS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM AS HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY ON TAP BUT STILL FAIRLY 
DRY AGAIN. 
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. NNW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. 
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  34  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  34  68  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  43  62  52  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$