FXUS62 KTAE 201957 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 257 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CORRESPONDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 19 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WAS COLD AND DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S DESPITE FULL SUN. && .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AL AND MS APPEARED TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED SOUTH...SO TONIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN TERMS OF BEING DRY AND CLEAR. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE WIND FORECAST...AND IT MAY BE UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN (WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST DRAWS CLOSER) WHEN THE WINDS GO CALM AT SOME SITES. THIS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE TEENS...BUT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE (COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY MORNING) IS STILL EXPECTED...EVEN AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FULL SUN. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BE OVER NORTH FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WE EXPECT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TIFTON GA TO TALLAHASSEE FL...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER TEENS (IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS). A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WERE PRETTY CLOSE. .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF PLUNGING ARCTIC COLD FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN UNFOLDS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS DEPICTED THE FRONT STALLING TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OF DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT STALLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM EMERGES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CATEGORY. AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNSET AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24HR PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 20 50 19 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 PANAMA CITY 26 48 33 60 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 DOTHAN 23 49 27 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALBANY 20 48 24 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 21 47 20 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 CROSS CITY 19 50 20 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA... HENRY...HOUSTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA... HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL... BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK... DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER... LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH... SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY... COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY... IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL... QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT... TURNER...WORTH. FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE... FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON... JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ LONG TERM...JAMSKI FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...GIBBS REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER