FXUS61 KGYX 201529
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1029 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR, SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS WILL UPDATE TO
ADJUST POP DOWN ACROSS N/MT ZONES AND INCREASE A BIT OVER SRN
ZONES. NO HIGHER THAN SLGT CHC FOR TDA. WILL ALSO ADJUST SKY
COVER. OTRW ANY CHANGES VERY MINOR.
CLOUDS MOST PERSISTENT OVER SRN AND COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ACROSS MORE NRN AND MT ZONES. OFFSHORE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LGT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE WATERS AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NH AND SRN ME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SEEMS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A NE FLOW IN
THE GULF CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SE NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT ISLES
OF SHOALS WILL COME IN MORE NNE...KEEPING -SHSN EAST...SO WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS. DRYING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. FOR LACK OF A BETTER STARTING
POINT...USE NAM/GFS MOS BLEND FOR LOWS. DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN SKY COVER FORECAST...WITH AGAIN VARIABLE CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS
MOS LEANS TOWARDS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEARING...BUT MORE OR LESS
TIME OF CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB +PNA PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST BECOMES MUCH FLATTER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH A BIT OF NW SKEW.  
NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CAA ON
WED...SO TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE THREAT OF
UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS...BUT AS 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS
OUT...LOOKS LIKE SOME SFC RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THU...WITH SOME
MID-LVL WARMING...AND COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK 500MB WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST N OF THE CWA...SO ANY THREAT FOR SHSN SHOULD
STAY IN THE MTS...BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS...AS EURO INDICATES
A SLIGHTLY SWD TREND TO TRACK. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH CIG
VARIABLE VFR TO MVFR AROUND FA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONT THRU THE
DAY. TREND SHOULD BE FOR CIG TO IMPROVE WITH TIME THRU THE SHORT
TERM. 
LONG TERM...NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR SEAS
FOR THE OUTER WATERS THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP UP SEAS
FCST FOR REST OF TDA A BIT BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS. SEAS
COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE BAYS BUT WILL OPT NOT TO PUT UP AN SCA
THERE. SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATER TDA BUT SHOULD EASE UP
TNGT.
LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE ON THE WATERS
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK...BEFORE NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVE
IN LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...REQUIRING SCA OR GALES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$