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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jan 15, 2009
Updated: Thu Jan 15 09:31:02 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Sun, Jan 18, 2009 - Mon, Jan 19, 2009 |
D7 | Wed, Jan 21, 2009 - Thu, Jan 22, 2009 |
| D5 | Mon, Jan 19, 2009 - Tue, Jan 20, 2009 |
D8 | Thu, Jan 22, 2009 - Fri, Jan 23, 2009 |
| D6 | Tue, Jan 20, 2009 - Wed, Jan 21, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150930
SPC AC 150930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH
WRN U.S. RIDGE AND BROAD ERN U.S UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT JAN 20 (DAY 6) WHEN A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE REGIME WILL COMMENCE. SEVERE THREAT THOUGH THIS PERIOD
WILL REMAIN LOW.
RICHER MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX BY DAY 8 AHEAD
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. HOWEVER...MREF SPREADS AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY ARE TOO LARGE THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE TO ASCERTAIN ANY SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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