|
Global economic performance and population growth drive demand for food and agricultural products, providing the foundation for agricultural trade and U.S. exports. (For more information, see the Trade chapter in the Agricultural
Baseline Projections briefing room.) Agricultural exports have significant linkages to the nonfarm economy, particularly through their effects on employment and off-farm business activity. (For more information, see the articles on Effects
of Trade on the U.S. Economy.)
Historically, bulk commodities—wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, cotton, and tobacco—accounted for most of U.S. agricultural exports. However, in the 1990s, U.S. exports of high-value products (HVP)—meats, poultry, live animals, oilseed meals, vegetable oils, fruits, vegetables, and beverages—showed steady growth, while exports of bulk commodities tended to fluctuate more widely, particularly in response to global supplies and prices. As population and incomes rose worldwide in the 1990s, U.S. HVP exports expanded in response to demand for greater diversification of diets. In fiscal year 1991, HVP exports exceeded exports of bulk products for the first time. Since then, HVP exports have continued to exceed bulk exports, even in years of an overall decline in U.S. agricultural trade. Exports of animals and animal products exceeded grains for the first time in 1998, and although grains briefly rebounded above animals and animal products in 1999, animals and animal products have been the largest export group since 2000. Growth of U.S. exports to Canada, Mexico, Central and South America, and Asian markets have been an important factor raising HVP exports since 1990. (For more information, see the articles on Bulk
Versus High-Value U.S. Exports.)
All U.S. agricultural exports declined in 1997-99 due to reduced demand—a reflection of global financial crises—but have risen slowly since 2000. Much of the drop and rebound occurred in bulk products, especially grains. The decline in U.S. grain exports reflected both reduced demand and lower prices during 1997-99. However, growth in oilseed export value was responsible for keeping bulk value from declining further, as global demand for oilseeds gradually expanded.
Canada became the leading U.S. agricultural export destination in 2002, replacing Japan. Mexico moved into second position ahead of Japan in 2005. Japan's slow recovery from economic stagnation is partially responsible, but rapid expansion of trade among the three members of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—is likely to keep Canada and Mexico in the position of largest recipients of U.S. agricultural exports. Other important destinations for U.S. agricultural exports include the European Union and Asia. The top 10 destinations for U.S. agricultural export has varied little since 1990, but Europe, which was the largest market in prior decades, has declined in importance as Canada, Mexico, the rest of the Americas, and Asia have risen. (For data on top export destinations, see Top 15 U.S. export destinations by fiscal or calendar year.)
|
