Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade

By Mark Gehlhar, Erik Dohlman, Nora Brooks, Alberto Jerardo, and Thomas Vollrath

Economic Research Report No. (ERR-46) 44 pp, September 2007

After a decade of uneven export growth and rapidly growing imports, U.S. agriculture has begun to reassert its position in global trade markets. Rising exports and signs of moderating import demand are in marked contrast to previous trends. This report places recent changes in perspective by highlighting the role of two specific factors that heavily guide U.S. agricultural trade patterns: global growth and shifts in foreign economic activity that affect U.S. exports, and macroeconomic factors underlying the growth of U.S. imports.

Keywords: agricultural trade, trade balance, income growth, economic development, population, macroeconomics, exchange rates, current account, growth projections, ERS, USDA

In this report ...

Chapters are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

• Report summary, 92 kb.

• Abstract, Acknowledgments, Contents, and Summary, 75 kb.
• Introduction, 69 kb.
• Global Growth, Structural Shifts, and Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports, 168 kb.
• Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade, 226 kb.
• Overview of Modeling Approaches, 37 kb.
• Model Results: Global Growth Effects on U.S. Trade, 84 kb.
• Model Results: The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on U.S. Trade, 100 kb.
• Conclusion, 23 kb.
• References, 43 kb.
• Appendix A: Putting the Trade Balance in Perspective, 86 kb.
• Appendix B: The GTAP and USAGE Models, 71 kb.

• Entire document, 701 kb.

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Updated date: September 4, 2007